OKC
MEM
Oklahoma City Thunder @ Memphis Grizzlies
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
OKCOklahoma City Thunder
56% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 56% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Thunder can win
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Thunder 1st (+10.0), Grizzlies 22nd (-4.8).
- The Thunder' shooting (55.6% eFG%, 6th in the NBA) meets a Grizzlies defense that ranks 26th.
- The Thunder' offense (115.4 points per 100 possessions, 4th in the NBA) meets a Grizzlies defense that ranks 22nd.
- Point differential per game: Thunder 1st (+10.2), Grizzlies 22nd (-5.0).
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.2 points to the Thunder in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why Thunder may not
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Grizzlies +12.0, Thunder +3.6.
- Upset odds: the Grizzlies win 4,440 of 10,000 simulations (44%). A 56% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Home court: the Grizzlies play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Thunder lose by 15 or more.
- Offensive rebounding (share of misses): Grizzlies 17th (25.2%), Thunder 27th (23.4%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | OKC -1.9 |
| Total points | n/a | 225.4 |
| Win chance | OKC n/a · MEM n/a | OKC 56% · MEM 44% |
| Fair moneyline | OKC -125 · MEM +125 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Grizzlies 112, Thunder 114.
- 80% of simulations land between Thunder by 19 and Grizzlies by 15.
Side by side
| OKC | MEM | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 5-0 |
| +10.0 1 | Net rating | -4.8 22 |
| 115.4 4 | Offensive rating | 110.2 23 |
| 105.5 1 | Defensive rating | 114.9 22 |
| 55.6% 6 | Effective FG% | 53.3% 23 |
| 51.8% 3 | Opponent eFG% | 55.8% 26 |
| 12.5 1 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.5 18 |
| 23.4% 27 | Offensive rebound % | 25.2% 17 |
| 36.2% 10 | 3-point % | 35.5% 17 |
| 102.2 18 | Pace | 104.3 7 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-09 | 2025-26 | OKC 117 @ MEM 116 | OKC |
| 2025-12-22 | 2025-26 | MEM 103 @ OKC 119 | OKC |
| 2025-11-09 | 2025-26 | OKC 114 @ MEM 100 | OKC |
| 2025-04-26 | Playoffs | OKC 117 @ MEM 115 | OKC |
| 2025-04-24 | Playoffs | OKC 114 @ MEM 108 | OKC |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works