OKC
MIN
Oklahoma City Thunder @ Minnesota Timberwolves
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
MINMinnesota Timberwolves
54% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 54% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why Timberwolves can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Timberwolves +12.6, Thunder +3.6.
- Home court: the Timberwolves play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Simulation: the Timberwolves win 5,430 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Offensive rebounding (share of misses): Timberwolves 13th (26.0%), Thunder 27th (23.4%).
- Defensive rebounding (share of misses): Timberwolves 9th (74.5%), Thunder 17th (73.8%).
Disadvantages Why Timberwolves may not
- Upset odds: the Thunder win 4,570 of 10,000 simulations (46%). A 54% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Thunder 1st (+10.0), Timberwolves 11th (+2.6).
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Thunder 1st (12.5), Timberwolves 16th (14.3).
- Point differential per game: Thunder 1st (+10.2), Timberwolves 11th (+2.7).
- Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Thunder 1st (16.4), Timberwolves 16th (14.3).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | MIN -1.3 |
| Total points | n/a | 225.9 |
| Win chance | OKC n/a · MIN n/a | OKC 46% · MIN 54% |
| Fair moneyline | OKC +119 · MIN -119 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Timberwolves 114, Thunder 112.
- 80% of simulations land between Thunder by 15 and Timberwolves by 18.
Side by side
| OKC | MIN | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 3-2 |
| +10.0 1 | Net rating | +2.6 11 |
| 115.4 4 | Offensive rating | 112.7 13 |
| 105.5 1 | Defensive rating | 110.1 8 |
| 55.6% 6 | Effective FG% | 55.1% 9 |
| 51.8% 3 | Opponent eFG% | 52.8% 5 |
| 12.5 1 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.3 16 |
| 23.4% 27 | Offensive rebound % | 26.0% 13 |
| 36.2% 10 | 3-point % | 36.7% 6 |
| 102.2 18 | Pace | 103.8 10 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-15 | 2025-26 | MIN 103 @ OKC 116 | OKC |
| 2026-01-29 | 2025-26 | OKC 111 @ MIN 123 | MIN |
| 2025-12-19 | 2025-26 | OKC 107 @ MIN 112 | MIN |
| 2025-11-26 | 2025-26 | MIN 105 @ OKC 113 | OKC |
| 2025-05-28 | Playoffs | MIN 94 @ OKC 124 | OKC |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works