OKC

Oklahoma City Thunder @ New Orleans Pelicans

Any-day matchup · ratings as of Oct 30, 7:50 PM ET

NOP

Our pick

OKCOklahoma City Thunder

66% to win

A probability, not a promise. A 66% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.

AZMango model

OKC 66%NOP 34%

No market price for this matchup yet, so there is nothing to compare against.

Advantages Why Thunder can win

Recent scoring margins: worth about 4.8 points to the Thunder in our ratings.
Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Thunder 1st (+10.0), Pelicans 21st (-4.2).
The Thunder' shooting (55.6% eFG%, 6th in the NBA) meets a Pelicans defense that ranks 23rd.
The Thunder' offense (115.4 points per 100 possessions, 4th in the NBA) meets a Pelicans defense that ranks 23rd.
Simulation: the Thunder win 6,580 of 10,000 simulated games.

Disadvantages Why Thunder may not

Home court: the Pelicans play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
Upset odds: the Pelicans win 3,420 of 10,000 simulations (34%). A 66% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Offensive rebounding (share of misses): Pelicans 9th (26.7%), Thunder 27th (23.4%).
Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Thunder lose by 11 or more.
Weak spot: the Thunder rank 27th of 30 in offensive rebounding (share of misses) (23.4%).

The line and our numbers

	Market	AZMango
Spread	No line yet	OKC -5.6
Total points	n/a	230.4
Win chance	OKC n/a · NOP n/a	OKC 66% · NOP 34%
Fair moneyline		OKC -193 · NOP +193

No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.

10,000 simulated games, possession by possession

Typical score: Pelicans 113, Thunder 119.
80% of simulations land between Thunder by 22 and Pelicans by 11.

See live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel

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Side by side

OKC		NOP
4-1	Record	1-4
+10.0 1	Net rating	-4.2 21
115.4 4	Offensive rating	111.2 18
105.5 1	Defensive rating	115.4 23
55.6% 6	Effective FG%	52.8% 26
51.8% 3	Opponent eFG%	55.5% 23
12.5 1	Turnovers per 100	13.8 10
23.4% 27	Offensive rebound %	26.7% 9
36.2% 10	3-point %	34.4% 25
102.2 18	Pace	104.1 8

Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).

Last 5 meetings

Date	Season	Score	Winner
2026-01-27	2025-26	NOP 95 @ OKC 104	OKC
2025-11-17	2025-26	OKC 126 @ NOP 109	OKC
2025-11-02	2025-26	NOP 106 @ OKC 137	OKC
2025-04-13	2024-25	OKC 115 @ NOP 100	OKC
2025-02-10	2024-25	NOP 101 @ OKC 137	OKC

No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.

Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works

Player matchups

OKC

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander G

30.2 pts, 4.1 reb, 6.6 ast in 33.7 min, 53% FG

vs a defense ranked 23 of 30 (opponent eFG% 55.5%)

OKC

Chet Holmgren C

16.6 pts, 8.8 reb, 1.6 ast in 29.3 min, 55% FG

vs a defense ranked 23 of 30 (opponent eFG% 55.5%)

OKC

Jalen Williams G

16.5 pts, 4.5 reb, 5 ast in 27.8 min, 48% FG

vs a defense ranked 23 of 30 (opponent eFG% 55.5%)

NOP

Zion Williamson F

21.1 pts, 5.6 reb, 3.1 ast in 29.9 min, 60% FG

vs a defense ranked 1 of 30 (opponent eFG% 51.8%)

NOP

Trey Murphy III F

21 pts, 5.6 reb, 3.7 ast in 35.3 min, 47% FG

vs a defense ranked 1 of 30 (opponent eFG% 51.8%)

NOP

Dejounte Murray G

16.9 pts, 5.4 reb, 6.3 ast in 28.8 min, 48% FG

vs a defense ranked 1 of 30 (opponent eFG% 51.8%)

Per-game averages, 2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons. Ordered by Game Score.

Last time they met

The Thunder beat the Pelicans 104-95 at home (2026-01-27). The difference: they shot 48% effective field goal percentage to 39% and they made 13 threes to 10, a 9-point swing. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander led the Thunder with 29 points.