OKC
NYK
Oklahoma City Thunder @ New York Knicks
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
NYKNew York Knicks
53% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 53% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why Knicks can win
- Home court: the Knicks play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Simulation: the Knicks win 5,310 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Offensive rebounding (share of misses): Knicks 5th (29.3%), Thunder 27th (23.4%).
- Defensive rebounding (share of misses): Knicks 1st (76.9%), Thunder 17th (73.8%).
- Strength: the Knicks rank 1st of 30 in defensive rebounding (share of misses) (76.9%).
Disadvantages Why Knicks may not
- Upset odds: the Thunder win 4,690 of 10,000 simulations (47%). A 53% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Thunder 1st (16.4), Knicks 15th (14.3).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Knicks lose by 16 or more.
- History: the Thunder won 5 of the last 5 meetings (rosters change, so this says little).
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Thunder 1st (12.5), Knicks 9th (13.7).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | NYK -0.9 |
| Total points | n/a | 219.8 |
| Win chance | OKC n/a · NYK n/a | OKC 47% · NYK 53% |
| Fair moneyline | OKC +113 · NYK -113 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Knicks 111, Thunder 110.
- 80% of simulations land between Thunder by 16 and Knicks by 17.
Side by side
| OKC | NYK | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 2-3 |
| +10.0 1 | Net rating | +7.6 3 |
| 115.4 4 | Offensive rating | 116.4 3 |
| 105.5 1 | Defensive rating | 108.7 4 |
| 55.6% 6 | Effective FG% | 55.6% 5 |
| 51.8% 3 | Opponent eFG% | 53.3% 7 |
| 12.5 1 | Turnovers per 100 | 13.7 9 |
| 23.4% 27 | Offensive rebound % | 29.3% 5 |
| 36.2% 10 | 3-point % | 37.5% 3 |
| 102.2 18 | Pace | 99.8 28 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-29 | 2025-26 | NYK 100 @ OKC 111 | OKC |
| 2026-03-04 | 2025-26 | OKC 103 @ NYK 100 | OKC |
| 2025-01-10 | 2024-25 | OKC 126 @ NYK 101 | OKC |
| 2025-01-03 | 2024-25 | NYK 107 @ OKC 117 | OKC |
| 2024-03-31 | 2023-24 | OKC 113 @ NYK 112 | OKC |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works