OKC
PHI
Oklahoma City Thunder @ Philadelphia 76ers
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
OKCOklahoma City Thunder
58% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 58% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Thunder can win
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Thunder 1st (+10.0), 76ers 20th (-0.9).
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.6 points to the Thunder in our ratings.
- Point differential per game: Thunder 1st (+10.2), 76ers 20th (-1.0).
- Simulation: the Thunder win 5,820 of 10,000 simulated games.
- The Thunder' offense (115.4 points per 100 possessions, 4th in the NBA) meets a 76ers defense that ranks 16th.
Disadvantages Why Thunder may not
- Upset odds: the 76ers win 4,180 of 10,000 simulations (42%). A 58% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Home court: the 76ers play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Thunder lose by 14 or more.
- Weak spot: the Thunder rank 27th of 30 in offensive rebounding (share of misses) (23.4%).
- Offensive rebounding (share of misses): 76ers 18th (25.1%), Thunder 27th (23.4%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | OKC -2.5 |
| Total points | n/a | 223.7 |
| Win chance | OKC n/a · PHI n/a | OKC 58% · PHI 42% |
| Fair moneyline | OKC -139 · PHI +139 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: 76ers 111, Thunder 114.
- 80% of simulations land between Thunder by 20 and 76ers by 14.
Side by side
| OKC | PHI | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 4-1 |
| +10.0 1 | Net rating | -0.9 20 |
| 115.4 4 | Offensive rating | 111.2 19 |
| 105.5 1 | Defensive rating | 112.1 16 |
| 55.6% 6 | Effective FG% | 52.7% 27 |
| 51.8% 3 | Opponent eFG% | 54.0% 11 |
| 12.5 1 | Turnovers per 100 | 13.1 5 |
| 23.4% 27 | Offensive rebound % | 25.1% 18 |
| 36.2% 10 | 3-point % | 34.7% 23 |
| 102.2 18 | Pace | 102.7 13 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-23 | 2025-26 | OKC 123 @ PHI 103 | OKC |
| 2025-12-28 | 2025-26 | PHI 104 @ OKC 129 | OKC |
| 2025-03-19 | 2024-25 | PHI 100 @ OKC 133 | OKC |
| 2025-01-14 | 2024-25 | OKC 118 @ PHI 102 | OKC |
| 2024-04-02 | 2023-24 | OKC 105 @ PHI 109 | PHI |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works