OKC

Oklahoma City Thunder @ San Antonio Spurs

Any-day matchup · ratings as of Oct 30, 7:50 PM ET

SAS

Our pick

SASSan Antonio Spurs

59% to win

A probability, not a promise. A 59% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.

AZMango model

OKC 41%SAS 59%

No market price for this matchup yet, so there is nothing to compare against.

Advantages Why Spurs can win

Simulation: the Spurs win 5,930 of 10,000 simulated games.
Home court: the Spurs play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
Offensive rebounding (share of misses): Spurs 10th (26.4%), Thunder 27th (23.4%).
Defensive rebounding (share of misses): Spurs 2nd (76.6%), Thunder 17th (73.8%).
Recent scoring margins: worth about 0.9 points to the Spurs in our ratings.

Disadvantages Why Spurs may not

Upset odds: the Thunder win 4,070 of 10,000 simulations (41%). A 59% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Thunder 1st (16.4), Spurs 25th (13.0).
Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Spurs lose by 14 or more.
Weak spot: the Spurs rank 25th of 30 in turnovers forced per 100 possessions (13.0).
Shooting variance: one hot or cold night from three can swing an NBA game by 15 points.

The line and our numbers

	Market	AZMango
Spread	No line yet	SAS -3
Total points	n/a	224
Win chance	OKC n/a · SAS n/a	OKC 41% · SAS 59%
Fair moneyline		OKC +146 · SAS -146

No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.

10,000 simulated games, possession by possession

Typical score: Spurs 114, Thunder 111.
80% of simulations land between Thunder by 14 and Spurs by 20.

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Side by side

OKC		SAS
4-1	Record	3-2
+10.0 1	Net rating	+7.7 2
115.4 4	Offensive rating	115.2 5
105.5 1	Defensive rating	107.5 3
55.6% 6	Effective FG%	55.1% 8
51.8% 3	Opponent eFG%	51.4% 2
12.5 1	Turnovers per 100	13.3 6
23.4% 27	Offensive rebound %	26.4% 10
36.2% 10	3-point %	35.8% 14
102.2 18	Pace	102.5 15

Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).

Last 5 meetings

Date	Season	Score	Winner
2026-10-20	2026-27	OKC 116 @ SAS 104	OKC
2026-05-30	Playoffs	SAS 111 @ OKC 103	SAS
2026-05-28	Playoffs	OKC 91 @ SAS 118	SAS
2026-05-26	Playoffs	SAS 114 @ OKC 127	OKC
2026-05-24	Playoffs	OKC 82 @ SAS 103	SAS

No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.

Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works

Player matchups

OKC

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander G

30.2 pts, 4.1 reb, 6.6 ast in 33.7 min, 53% FG

vs a defense ranked 3 of 30 (opponent eFG% 51.4%)

OKC

Chet Holmgren C

16.6 pts, 8.8 reb, 1.6 ast in 29.3 min, 55% FG

vs a defense ranked 3 of 30 (opponent eFG% 51.4%)

OKC

Jalen Williams G

16.5 pts, 4.5 reb, 5 ast in 27.8 min, 48% FG

vs a defense ranked 3 of 30 (opponent eFG% 51.4%)

SAS

Victor Wembanyama F

24.6 pts, 11.3 reb, 3 ast in 30.5 min, 50% FG

vs a defense ranked 1 of 30 (opponent eFG% 51.8%)

SAS

De'Aaron Fox G

17.7 pts, 3.8 reb, 6.2 ast in 31.6 min, 47% FG

vs a defense ranked 1 of 30 (opponent eFG% 51.8%)

SAS

Stephon Castle G

17 pts, 5.3 reb, 7 ast in 30.8 min, 46% FG

vs a defense ranked 1 of 30 (opponent eFG% 51.8%)

Per-game averages, 2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons. Ordered by Game Score.

Last time they met

The Thunder beat the Spurs 116-104 on the road (2026-10-20). The difference: they shot 53% effective field goal percentage to 44% and they made 14 threes to 10, a 12-point swing. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander led the Thunder with 32 points.