OKC
TOR
Oklahoma City Thunder @ Toronto Raptors
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
TORToronto Raptors
52% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 52% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why Raptors can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Raptors +15.0, Thunder +3.6.
- Home court: the Raptors play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Simulation: the Raptors win 5,220 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Offensive rebounding (share of misses): Raptors 15th (25.7%), Thunder 27th (23.4%).
- Strength: the Raptors rank 3rd of 30 in turnovers forced per 100 possessions (16.2).
Disadvantages Why Raptors may not
- Upset odds: the Thunder win 4,780 of 10,000 simulations (48%). A 52% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Thunder 1st (+10.0), Raptors 9th (+3.0).
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.2 points to the Thunder in our ratings.
- Point differential per game: Thunder 1st (+10.2), Raptors 9th (+3.0).
- Three-point shooting: Thunder 10th (36.2%), Raptors 21st (35.2%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | TOR -0.3 |
| Total points | n/a | 222.7 |
| Win chance | OKC n/a · TOR n/a | OKC 48% · TOR 52% |
| Fair moneyline | OKC +109 · TOR -109 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Raptors 112, Thunder 112.
- 80% of simulations land between Thunder by 17 and Raptors by 17.
Side by side
| OKC | TOR | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 3-1 |
| +10.0 1 | Net rating | +3.0 9 |
| 115.4 4 | Offensive rating | 112.4 15 |
| 105.5 1 | Defensive rating | 109.4 7 |
| 55.6% 6 | Effective FG% | 54.3% 15 |
| 51.8% 3 | Opponent eFG% | 53.8% 8 |
| 12.5 1 | Turnovers per 100 | 13.6 8 |
| 23.4% 27 | Offensive rebound % | 25.7% 15 |
| 36.2% 10 | 3-point % | 35.2% 21 |
| 102.2 18 | Pace | 101.8 21 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-24 | 2025-26 | OKC 116 @ TOR 107 | OKC |
| 2026-01-25 | 2025-26 | TOR 103 @ OKC 101 | TOR |
| 2025-02-07 | 2024-25 | TOR 109 @ OKC 121 | OKC |
| 2024-12-05 | 2024-25 | OKC 129 @ TOR 92 | OKC |
| 2024-03-22 | 2023-24 | OKC 123 @ TOR 103 | OKC |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works