ORL
BKN
Orlando Magic @ Brooklyn Nets
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
ORLOrlando Magic
55% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 55% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Magic can win
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Magic 17th (-0.2), Nets 28th (-9.9).
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.3 points to the Magic in our ratings.
- Simulation: the Magic win 5,520 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Magic 11th (13.9), Nets 29th (15.8).
- Point differential per game: Magic 17th (-0.1), Nets 28th (-10.0).
Disadvantages Why Magic may not
- Upset odds: the Nets win 4,480 of 10,000 simulations (45%). A 55% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Home court: the Nets play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Magic lose by 15 or more.
- Weak spot: the Magic rank 29th of 30 in three-point shooting (34.0%).
- Weak spot: the Magic rank 28th of 30 in effective shooting (eFG%) (52.4%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | ORL -1.9 |
| Total points | n/a | 230.3 |
| Win chance | ORL n/a · BKN n/a | ORL 55% · BKN 45% |
| Fair moneyline | ORL -123 · BKN +123 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Nets 114, Magic 116.
- 80% of simulations land between Magic by 19 and Nets by 15.
Side by side
| ORL | BKN | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-3 | Record | 0-4 |
| -0.2 17 | Net rating | -9.9 28 |
| 110.4 22 | Offensive rating | 105.9 30 |
| 110.6 9 | Defensive rating | 115.9 26 |
| 52.4% 28 | Effective FG% | 52.0% 30 |
| 53.9% 9 | Opponent eFG% | 57.2% 28 |
| 13.9 11 | Turnovers per 100 | 15.8 29 |
| 24.8% 19 | Offensive rebound % | 23.8% 23 |
| 34.0% 29 | 3-point % | 34.2% 27 |
| 103.1 12 | Pace | 100.4 24 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-05 | 2025-26 | BKN 98 @ ORL 118 | ORL |
| 2026-01-07 | 2025-26 | ORL 104 @ BKN 103 | ORL |
| 2025-11-14 | 2025-26 | BKN 98 @ ORL 105 | ORL |
| 2024-12-29 | 2024-25 | BKN 101 @ ORL 102 | ORL |
| 2024-12-01 | 2024-25 | ORL 100 @ BKN 92 | ORL |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works