ORL
BOS
Orlando Magic @ Boston Celtics
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
BOSBoston Celtics
73% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 73% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why Celtics can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Celtics +8.0, Magic -12.5.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 4.0 points to the Celtics in our ratings.
- Simulation: the Celtics win 7,340 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Celtics 4th (+7.5), Magic 17th (-0.2).
- Home court: the Celtics play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
Disadvantages Why Celtics may not
- Getting to the line (free throws per shot): Magic 1st (0.25), Celtics 29th (0.17).
- Upset odds: the Magic win 2,660 of 10,000 simulations (27%). A 73% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Magic 13th (14.5), Celtics 27th (12.8).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Celtics lose by 9 or more.
- Weak spot: the Celtics rank 29th of 30 in getting to the line (free throws per shot) (0.17).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | BOS -7.8 |
| Total points | n/a | 226.6 |
| Win chance | ORL n/a · BOS n/a | ORL 27% · BOS 73% |
| Fair moneyline | ORL +277 · BOS -277 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Celtics 118, Magic 109.
- 80% of simulations land between Magic by 9 and Celtics by 25.
Side by side
| ORL | BOS | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-3 | Record | 3-1 |
| -0.2 17 | Net rating | +7.5 4 |
| 110.4 22 | Offensive rating | 116.6 2 |
| 110.6 9 | Defensive rating | 109.1 5 |
| 52.4% 28 | Effective FG% | 55.1% 10 |
| 53.9% 9 | Opponent eFG% | 52.2% 4 |
| 13.9 11 | Turnovers per 100 | 12.7 2 |
| 24.8% 19 | Offensive rebound % | 29.0% 6 |
| 34.0% 29 | 3-point % | 36.5% 8 |
| 103.1 12 | Pace | 98.1 30 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-12 | 2025-26 | ORL 108 @ BOS 113 | BOS |
| 2025-11-23 | 2025-26 | ORL 129 @ BOS 138 | BOS |
| 2025-11-09 | 2025-26 | BOS 111 @ ORL 107 | BOS |
| 2025-11-07 | 2025-26 | BOS 110 @ ORL 123 | ORL |
| 2025-04-29 | Playoffs | ORL 89 @ BOS 120 | BOS |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works