ORL

Orlando Magic @ Charlotte Hornets

Any-day matchup · ratings as of Oct 30, 7:50 PM ET

CHA

Our pick

CHACharlotte Hornets

61% to win

A probability, not a promise. A 61% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.

AZMango model

ORL 39%CHA 61%

No market price for this matchup yet, so there is nothing to compare against.

Advantages Why Hornets can win

Simulation: the Hornets win 6,080 of 10,000 simulated games.
Home court: the Hornets play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
Three-point shooting: Hornets 4th (37.2%), Magic 29th (34.0%).
Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Hornets 8th (+3.7), Magic 17th (-0.2).
Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.6 points to the Hornets in our ratings.

Disadvantages Why Hornets may not

Upset odds: the Magic win 3,920 of 10,000 simulations (39%). A 61% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Magic 11th (13.9), Hornets 28th (15.6).
Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Magic 13th (14.5), Hornets 28th (12.7).
Getting to the line (free throws per shot): Magic 1st (0.25), Hornets 20th (0.20).
Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Hornets lose by 13 or more.

The line and our numbers

	Market	AZMango
Spread	No line yet	CHA -3.4
Total points	n/a	222.5
Win chance	ORL n/a · CHA n/a	ORL 39% · CHA 61%
Fair moneyline		ORL +155 · CHA -155

No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.

10,000 simulated games, possession by possession

Typical score: Hornets 113, Magic 110.
80% of simulations land between Magic by 13 and Hornets by 20.

See live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel

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Side by side

ORL		CHA
1-3	Record	3-2
-0.2 17	Net rating	+3.7 8
110.4 22	Offensive rating	114.6 7
110.6 9	Defensive rating	110.9 10
52.4% 28	Effective FG%	54.7% 13
53.9% 9	Opponent eFG%	54.0% 10
13.9 11	Turnovers per 100	15.6 28
24.8% 19	Offensive rebound %	30.5% 4
34.0% 29	3-point %	37.2% 4
103.1 12	Pace	100.3 25

Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).

Last 5 meetings

Date	Season	Score	Winner
2026-04-17	2025-26	CHA 90 @ ORL 121	ORL
2026-03-19	2025-26	ORL 111 @ CHA 130	CHA
2026-01-22	2025-26	CHA 124 @ ORL 97	CHA
2025-12-26	2025-26	CHA 120 @ ORL 105	CHA
2025-10-30	2025-26	ORL 123 @ CHA 107	ORL

No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.

Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works

Player matchups

ORL

Paolo Banchero F

22.6 pts, 8.3 reb, 5.3 ast in 35 min, 46% FG

vs a defense ranked 10 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.0%)

ORL

Franz Wagner F

19.9 pts, 5.4 reb, 3.6 ast in 30.2 min, 47% FG

vs a defense ranked 10 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.0%)

ORL

Desmond Bane G

19.8 pts, 4.2 reb, 3.8 ast in 33.8 min, 47% FG

vs a defense ranked 10 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.0%)

CHA

Kon Knueppel G

18.3 pts, 5.3 reb, 3.3 ast in 31.5 min, 47% FG

vs a defense ranked 9 of 30 (opponent eFG% 53.9%)

CHA

Brandon Miller F

20.5 pts, 5 reb, 3.2 ast in 30.6 min, 43% FG

vs a defense ranked 9 of 30 (opponent eFG% 53.9%)

CHA

Grayson Allen G

15.2 pts, 3 reb, 3 ast in 28.2 min, 44% FG

vs a defense ranked 9 of 30 (opponent eFG% 53.9%)

Per-game averages, 2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons. Ordered by Game Score.

Last time they met

The Magic beat the Hornets 121-90 at home (NBA Play-In - East - 8th Seed Game). The difference: they shot 55% effective field goal percentage to 41% and they won the boards 49 to 34. Paolo Banchero led the Magic with 25 points.