ORL
CHI
Orlando Magic @ Chicago Bulls
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
ORLOrlando Magic
56% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 56% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Magic can win
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.0 points to the Magic in our ratings.
- Simulation: the Magic win 5,610 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Magic 17th (-0.2), Bulls 24th (-5.5).
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 1.4 points to the Magic in our ratings.
- Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Magic 13th (14.5), Bulls 29th (12.2).
Disadvantages Why Magic may not
- Upset odds: the Bulls win 4,390 of 10,000 simulations (44%). A 56% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Home court: the Bulls play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Magic lose by 15 or more.
- Weak spot: the Magic rank 29th of 30 in three-point shooting (34.0%).
- Weak spot: the Magic rank 28th of 30 in effective shooting (eFG%) (52.4%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | ORL -1.7 |
| Total points | n/a | 237.9 |
| Win chance | ORL n/a · CHI n/a | ORL 56% · CHI 44% |
| Fair moneyline | ORL -128 · CHI +128 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Bulls 118, Magic 120.
- 80% of simulations land between Magic by 18 and Bulls by 15.
Side by side
| ORL | CHI | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-3 | Record | 1-4 |
| -0.2 17 | Net rating | -5.5 24 |
| 110.4 22 | Offensive rating | 110.1 25 |
| 110.6 9 | Defensive rating | 115.6 25 |
| 52.4% 28 | Effective FG% | 54.3% 14 |
| 53.9% 9 | Opponent eFG% | 55.3% 21 |
| 13.9 11 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.5 17 |
| 24.8% 19 | Offensive rebound % | 23.4% 26 |
| 34.0% 29 | 3-point % | 35.0% 22 |
| 103.1 12 | Pace | 105.5 3 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-10 | 2025-26 | ORL 127 @ CHI 103 | ORL |
| 2026-01-02 | 2025-26 | ORL 114 @ CHI 121 | CHI |
| 2025-12-01 | 2025-26 | CHI 120 @ ORL 125 | ORL |
| 2025-10-25 | 2025-26 | CHI 110 @ ORL 98 | CHI |
| 2025-03-06 | 2024-25 | CHI 125 @ ORL 123 | CHI |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works