ORL

Orlando Magic @ Detroit Pistons

Any-day matchup · ratings as of Oct 30, 7:50 PM ET

DET

Our pick

DETDetroit Pistons

75% to win

A probability, not a promise. A 75% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.

AZMango model

ORL 25%DET 75%

No market price for this matchup yet, so there is nothing to compare against.

Advantages Why Pistons can win

Recent scoring margins: worth about 4.8 points to the Pistons in our ratings.
Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Pistons +6.4, Magic -12.5.
Simulation: the Pistons win 7,480 of 10,000 simulated games.
Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Pistons 5th (+7.0), Magic 17th (-0.2).
Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 2.4 points to the Pistons in our ratings.

Disadvantages Why Pistons may not

Upset odds: the Magic win 2,520 of 10,000 simulations (25%). A 75% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Magic 11th (13.9), Pistons 24th (15.0).
Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Pistons lose by 8 or more.
Defensive rebounding (share of misses): Magic 5th (75.2%), Pistons 15th (74.0%).
Weak spot: the Pistons rank 24th of 30 in ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions) (15.0).

The line and our numbers

	Market	AZMango
Spread	No line yet	DET -8.9
Total points	n/a	223.4
Win chance	ORL n/a · DET n/a	ORL 25% · DET 75%
Fair moneyline		ORL +296 · DET -296

No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.

10,000 simulated games, possession by possession

Typical score: Pistons 116, Magic 107.
80% of simulations land between Magic by 8 and Pistons by 25.

See live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel

Plain links. We are not paid for them and take no bets.

Side by side

ORL		DET
1-3	Record	4-1
-0.2 17	Net rating	+7.0 5
110.4 22	Offensive rating	113.2 12
110.6 9	Defensive rating	106.2 2
52.4% 28	Effective FG%	54.2% 16
53.9% 9	Opponent eFG%	51.4% 1
13.9 11	Turnovers per 100	15.0 24
24.8% 19	Offensive rebound %	30.8% 3
34.0% 29	3-point %	35.8% 15
103.1 12	Pace	102.1 19

Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).

Last 5 meetings

Date	Season	Score	Winner
2026-05-03	Playoffs	ORL 94 @ DET 116	DET
2026-05-01	Playoffs	DET 93 @ ORL 79	DET
2026-04-29	Playoffs	ORL 109 @ DET 116	DET
2026-04-27	Playoffs	DET 88 @ ORL 94	ORL
2026-04-25	Playoffs	DET 105 @ ORL 113	ORL

No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.

Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works

Player matchups

ORL

Paolo Banchero F

22.6 pts, 8.3 reb, 5.3 ast in 35 min, 46% FG

vs a defense ranked 2 of 30 (opponent eFG% 51.4%)

ORL

Franz Wagner F

19.9 pts, 5.4 reb, 3.6 ast in 30.2 min, 47% FG

vs a defense ranked 2 of 30 (opponent eFG% 51.4%)

ORL

Desmond Bane G

19.8 pts, 4.2 reb, 3.8 ast in 33.8 min, 47% FG

vs a defense ranked 2 of 30 (opponent eFG% 51.4%)

DET

Cade Cunningham G

24.6 pts, 5.5 reb, 9.4 ast in 35.1 min, 46% FG

vs a defense ranked 9 of 30 (opponent eFG% 53.9%)

DET

Jalen Duren C

17.8 pts, 10.1 reb, 2 ast in 28.3 min, 63% FG

vs a defense ranked 9 of 30 (opponent eFG% 53.9%)

DET

Tobias Harris F

14.1 pts, 5.5 reb, 2.3 ast in 29 min, 46% FG

vs a defense ranked 9 of 30 (opponent eFG% 53.9%)

Per-game averages, 2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons. Ordered by Game Score.

Last time they met

The Pistons beat the Magic 116-94 at home (East 1st Round - Game 7). The difference: they shot 61% effective field goal percentage to 48% and they made 16 threes to 10, a 18-point swing. Cade Cunningham led the Pistons with 32 points.