ORL
GSW
Orlando Magic @ Golden State Warriors
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
GSWGolden State Warriors
60% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 60% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Warriors can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Warriors -1.8, Magic -12.5.
- Simulation: the Warriors win 6,030 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Home court: the Warriors play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.3 points to the Warriors in our ratings.
- Three-point shooting: Warriors 16th (35.7%), Magic 29th (34.0%).
Disadvantages Why Warriors may not
- Upset odds: the Magic win 3,970 of 10,000 simulations (40%). A 60% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Magic 11th (13.9), Warriors 27th (15.5).
- Getting to the line (free throws per shot): Magic 1st (0.25), Warriors 24th (0.20).
- Defensive rebounding (share of misses): Magic 5th (75.2%), Warriors 23rd (72.9%).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Warriors lose by 13 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | GSW -3.5 |
| Total points | n/a | 231.1 |
| Win chance | ORL n/a · GSW n/a | ORL 40% · GSW 60% |
| Fair moneyline | ORL +152 · GSW -152 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Warriors 118, Magic 114.
- 80% of simulations land between Magic by 13 and Warriors by 20.
Side by side
| ORL | GSW | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-3 | Record | 2-3 |
| -0.2 17 | Net rating | -0.7 19 |
| 110.4 22 | Offensive rating | 112.2 16 |
| 110.6 9 | Defensive rating | 112.9 17 |
| 52.4% 28 | Effective FG% | 55.0% 12 |
| 53.9% 9 | Opponent eFG% | 55.6% 24 |
| 13.9 11 | Turnovers per 100 | 15.5 27 |
| 24.8% 19 | Offensive rebound % | 26.3% 11 |
| 34.0% 29 | 3-point % | 35.7% 16 |
| 103.1 12 | Pace | 102.3 17 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-22 | 2025-26 | ORL 97 @ GSW 120 | GSW |
| 2025-11-18 | 2025-26 | GSW 113 @ ORL 121 | ORL |
| 2025-02-27 | 2024-25 | GSW 121 @ ORL 115 | GSW |
| 2025-02-03 | 2024-25 | ORL 99 @ GSW 104 | GSW |
| 2024-03-27 | 2023-24 | GSW 101 @ ORL 93 | GSW |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works