ORL
MEM
Orlando Magic @ Memphis Grizzlies
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
MEMMemphis Grizzlies
66% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 66% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why Grizzlies can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Grizzlies +12.0, Magic -12.5.
- Simulation: the Grizzlies win 6,620 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.5 points to the Grizzlies in our ratings.
- Home court: the Grizzlies play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Three-point shooting: Grizzlies 17th (35.5%), Magic 29th (34.0%).
Disadvantages Why Grizzlies may not
- Upset odds: the Magic win 3,380 of 10,000 simulations (34%). A 66% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Defensive rebounding (share of misses): Magic 5th (75.2%), Grizzlies 29th (71.0%).
- Getting to the line (free throws per shot): Magic 1st (0.25), Grizzlies 19th (0.20).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Grizzlies lose by 11 or more.
- Weak spot: the Grizzlies rank 29th of 30 in defensive rebounding (share of misses) (71.0%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | MEM -5.1 |
| Total points | n/a | 229.5 |
| Win chance | ORL n/a · MEM n/a | ORL 34% · MEM 66% |
| Fair moneyline | ORL +196 · MEM -196 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Grizzlies 118, Magic 112.
- 80% of simulations land between Magic by 11 and Grizzlies by 21.
Side by side
| ORL | MEM | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-3 | Record | 5-0 |
| -0.2 17 | Net rating | -4.8 22 |
| 110.4 22 | Offensive rating | 110.2 23 |
| 110.6 9 | Defensive rating | 114.9 22 |
| 52.4% 28 | Effective FG% | 53.3% 23 |
| 53.9% 9 | Opponent eFG% | 55.8% 26 |
| 13.9 11 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.5 18 |
| 24.8% 19 | Offensive rebound % | 25.2% 17 |
| 34.0% 29 | 3-point % | 35.5% 17 |
| 103.1 12 | Pace | 104.3 7 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-18 | 2025-26 | ORL 109 @ MEM 126 | MEM |
| 2026-01-15 | 2025-26 | MEM 111 @ ORL 118 | ORL |
| 2025-02-21 | 2024-25 | MEM 105 @ ORL 104 | MEM |
| 2024-10-26 | 2024-25 | ORL 111 @ MEM 124 | MEM |
| 2024-03-30 | 2023-24 | MEM 88 @ ORL 118 | ORL |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works