ORL
MIA
Orlando Magic @ Miami Heat
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
MIAMiami Heat
57% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 57% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Heat can win
- Simulation: the Heat win 5,680 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Home court: the Heat play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Three-point shooting: Heat 12th (35.9%), Magic 29th (34.0%).
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Heat 4th (12.8), Magic 11th (13.9).
- Strength: the Heat rank 2nd of 30 in points per game (120.5).
Disadvantages Why Heat may not
- Upset odds: the Magic win 4,320 of 10,000 simulations (43%). A 57% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Heat lose by 15 or more.
- Getting to the line (free throws per shot): Magic 1st (0.25), Heat 16th (0.21).
- History: the Magic won 5 of the last 5 meetings (rosters change, so this says little).
- Weak spot: the Heat rank 22nd of 30 in points allowed per game (118.8).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | MIA -2.2 |
| Total points | n/a | 235 |
| Win chance | ORL n/a · MIA n/a | ORL 43% · MIA 57% |
| Fair moneyline | ORL +131 · MIA -131 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Heat 119, Magic 117.
- 80% of simulations land between Magic by 15 and Heat by 19.
Side by side
| ORL | MIA | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-3 | Record | 1-4 |
| -0.2 17 | Net rating | +1.6 12 |
| 110.4 22 | Offensive rating | 113.4 11 |
| 110.6 9 | Defensive rating | 111.8 14 |
| 52.4% 28 | Effective FG% | 54.1% 17 |
| 53.9% 9 | Opponent eFG% | 54.2% 14 |
| 13.9 11 | Turnovers per 100 | 12.8 4 |
| 24.8% 19 | Offensive rebound % | 25.2% 16 |
| 34.0% 29 | 3-point % | 35.9% 12 |
| 103.1 12 | Pace | 106.3 1 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-14 | 2025-26 | ORL 121 @ MIA 117 | ORL |
| 2026-01-28 | 2025-26 | ORL 133 @ MIA 124 | ORL |
| 2025-12-09 | 2025-26 | MIA 108 @ ORL 117 | ORL |
| 2025-12-05 | 2025-26 | MIA 105 @ ORL 106 | ORL |
| 2025-10-22 | 2025-26 | MIA 121 @ ORL 125 | ORL |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works