ORL
MIL
Orlando Magic @ Milwaukee Bucks
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
ORLOrlando Magic
56% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 56% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Magic can win
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.3 points to the Magic in our ratings.
- Simulation: the Magic win 5,580 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Magic 17th (-0.2), Bucks 25th (-6.4).
- Getting to the line (free throws per shot): Magic 1st (0.25), Bucks 30th (0.16).
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Magic 11th (13.9), Bucks 25th (15.2).
Disadvantages Why Magic may not
- Upset odds: the Bucks win 4,420 of 10,000 simulations (44%). A 56% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Three-point shooting: Bucks 2nd (38.4%), Magic 29th (34.0%).
- Home court: the Bucks play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- The Bucks' shooting (56.3% eFG%, 3rd in the NBA) meets a Magic defense that ranks 9th.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Magic lose by 14 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | ORL -1.9 |
| Total points | n/a | 230.4 |
| Win chance | ORL n/a · MIL n/a | ORL 56% · MIL 44% |
| Fair moneyline | ORL -126 · MIL +126 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Bucks 115, Magic 117.
- 80% of simulations land between Magic by 18 and Bucks by 14.
Side by side
| ORL | MIL | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-3 | Record | 1-4 |
| -0.2 17 | Net rating | -6.4 25 |
| 110.4 22 | Offensive rating | 110.1 24 |
| 110.6 9 | Defensive rating | 116.5 27 |
| 52.4% 28 | Effective FG% | 56.3% 3 |
| 53.9% 9 | Opponent eFG% | 55.7% 25 |
| 13.9 11 | Turnovers per 100 | 15.2 25 |
| 24.8% 19 | Offensive rebound % | 21.7% 30 |
| 34.0% 29 | 3-point % | 38.4% 2 |
| 103.1 12 | Pace | 100.6 22 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-08 | 2025-26 | ORL 130 @ MIL 91 | ORL |
| 2026-02-11 | 2025-26 | MIL 116 @ ORL 108 | MIL |
| 2026-02-09 | 2025-26 | MIL 99 @ ORL 118 | ORL |
| 2025-03-08 | 2024-25 | ORL 111 @ MIL 109 | ORL |
| 2025-01-15 | 2024-25 | ORL 93 @ MIL 122 | MIL |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works