ORL
NOP
Orlando Magic @ New Orleans Pelicans
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
NOPNew Orleans Pelicans
54% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 54% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why Pelicans can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Pelicans -2.2, Magic -12.5.
- Home court: the Pelicans play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Simulation: the Pelicans win 5,390 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Offensive rebounding (share of misses): Pelicans 9th (26.7%), Magic 19th (24.8%).
- Strength: the Pelicans rank 5th of 30 in getting to the line (free throws per shot) (0.22).
Disadvantages Why Pelicans may not
- Upset odds: the Magic win 4,610 of 10,000 simulations (46%). A 54% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Defensive rebounding (share of misses): Magic 5th (75.2%), Pelicans 27th (71.7%).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Pelicans lose by 15 or more.
- History: the Magic won 5 of the last 5 meetings (rosters change, so this says little).
- Weak spot: the Pelicans rank 27th of 30 in defensive rebounding (share of misses) (71.7%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | NOP -1.4 |
| Total points | n/a | 234.5 |
| Win chance | ORL n/a · NOP n/a | ORL 46% · NOP 54% |
| Fair moneyline | ORL +117 · NOP -117 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Pelicans 118, Magic 117.
- 80% of simulations land between Magic by 15 and Pelicans by 18.
Side by side
| ORL | NOP | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-3 | Record | 1-4 |
| -0.2 17 | Net rating | -4.2 21 |
| 110.4 22 | Offensive rating | 111.2 18 |
| 110.6 9 | Defensive rating | 115.4 23 |
| 52.4% 28 | Effective FG% | 52.8% 26 |
| 53.9% 9 | Opponent eFG% | 55.5% 23 |
| 13.9 11 | Turnovers per 100 | 13.8 10 |
| 24.8% 19 | Offensive rebound % | 26.7% 9 |
| 34.0% 29 | 3-point % | 34.4% 25 |
| 103.1 12 | Pace | 104.1 8 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-05 | 2025-26 | ORL 112 @ NOP 108 | ORL |
| 2026-01-11 | 2025-26 | NOP 118 @ ORL 128 | ORL |
| 2025-03-13 | 2024-25 | ORL 113 @ NOP 93 | ORL |
| 2024-11-08 | 2024-25 | NOP 88 @ ORL 115 | ORL |
| 2024-04-03 | 2023-24 | ORL 117 @ NOP 108 | ORL |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works