ORL
NYK
Orlando Magic @ New York Knicks
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
NYKNew York Knicks
73% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 73% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why Knicks can win
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 4.2 points to the Knicks in our ratings.
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Knicks +0.2, Magic -12.5.
- Simulation: the Knicks win 7,260 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Knicks 3rd (+7.6), Magic 17th (-0.2).
- Three-point shooting: Knicks 3rd (37.5%), Magic 29th (34.0%).
Disadvantages Why Knicks may not
- Upset odds: the Magic win 2,740 of 10,000 simulations (27%). A 73% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Getting to the line (free throws per shot): Magic 1st (0.25), Knicks 25th (0.19).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Knicks lose by 9 or more.
- Weak spot: the Knicks rank 25th of 30 in getting to the line (free throws per shot) (0.19).
- Shooting variance: one hot or cold night from three can swing an NBA game by 15 points.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | NYK -7.9 |
| Total points | n/a | 223.9 |
| Win chance | ORL n/a · NYK n/a | ORL 27% · NYK 73% |
| Fair moneyline | ORL +265 · NYK -265 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Knicks 116, Magic 108.
- 80% of simulations land between Magic by 9 and Knicks by 25.
Side by side
| ORL | NYK | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-3 | Record | 2-3 |
| -0.2 17 | Net rating | +7.6 3 |
| 110.4 22 | Offensive rating | 116.4 3 |
| 110.6 9 | Defensive rating | 108.7 4 |
| 52.4% 28 | Effective FG% | 55.6% 5 |
| 53.9% 9 | Opponent eFG% | 53.3% 7 |
| 13.9 11 | Turnovers per 100 | 13.7 9 |
| 24.8% 19 | Offensive rebound % | 29.3% 5 |
| 34.0% 29 | 3-point % | 37.5% 3 |
| 103.1 12 | Pace | 99.8 28 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-25 | 2026-27 | ORL 111 @ NYK 102 | ORL |
| 2025-12-13 | 2025-26 | NYK 132 @ ORL 120 | NYK |
| 2025-12-07 | 2025-26 | ORL 100 @ NYK 106 | NYK |
| 2025-11-22 | 2025-26 | NYK 121 @ ORL 133 | ORL |
| 2025-11-12 | 2025-26 | ORL 124 @ NYK 107 | ORL |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works