ORL
OKC
Orlando Magic @ Oklahoma City Thunder
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
OKCOklahoma City Thunder
75% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 75% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why Thunder can win
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 4.7 points to the Thunder in our ratings.
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Thunder +3.6, Magic -12.5.
- Simulation: the Thunder win 7,480 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Thunder 1st (+10.0), Magic 17th (-0.2).
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 2.3 points to the Thunder in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why Thunder may not
- Upset odds: the Magic win 2,520 of 10,000 simulations (25%). A 75% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Thunder lose by 9 or more.
- Defensive rebounding (share of misses): Magic 5th (75.2%), Thunder 17th (73.8%).
- Getting to the line (free throws per shot): Magic 1st (0.25), Thunder 14th (0.21).
- Weak spot: the Thunder rank 27th of 30 in offensive rebounding (share of misses) (23.4%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | OKC -8.7 |
| Total points | n/a | 224.9 |
| Win chance | ORL n/a · OKC n/a | ORL 25% · OKC 75% |
| Fair moneyline | ORL +296 · OKC -296 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Thunder 117, Magic 108.
- 80% of simulations land between Magic by 9 and Thunder by 25.
Side by side
| ORL | OKC | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-3 | Record | 4-1 |
| -0.2 17 | Net rating | +10.0 1 |
| 110.4 22 | Offensive rating | 115.4 4 |
| 110.6 9 | Defensive rating | 105.5 1 |
| 52.4% 28 | Effective FG% | 55.6% 6 |
| 53.9% 9 | Opponent eFG% | 51.8% 3 |
| 13.9 11 | Turnovers per 100 | 12.5 1 |
| 24.8% 19 | Offensive rebound % | 23.4% 27 |
| 34.0% 29 | 3-point % | 36.2% 10 |
| 103.1 12 | Pace | 102.2 18 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-17 | 2025-26 | OKC 113 @ ORL 108 | OKC |
| 2026-02-03 | 2025-26 | ORL 92 @ OKC 128 | OKC |
| 2024-12-19 | 2024-25 | OKC 105 @ ORL 99 | OKC |
| 2024-11-04 | 2024-25 | ORL 86 @ OKC 102 | OKC |
| 2024-02-13 | 2023-24 | OKC 127 @ ORL 113 | OKC |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works