ORL
PHI
Orlando Magic @ Philadelphia 76ers
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
PHIPhiladelphia 76ers
62% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 62% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why 76ers can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, 76ers +3.4, Magic -12.5.
- Simulation: the 76ers win 6,240 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.2 points to the 76ers in our ratings.
- Home court: the 76ers play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 0.6 points to the 76ers in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why 76ers may not
- Upset odds: the Magic win 3,760 of 10,000 simulations (38%). A 62% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Defensive rebounding (share of misses): Magic 5th (75.2%), 76ers 26th (72.3%).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the 76ers lose by 12 or more.
- Weak spot: the 76ers rank 27th of 30 in effective shooting (eFG%) (52.7%).
- Weak spot: the 76ers rank 26th of 30 in defensive rebounding (share of misses) (72.3%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | PHI -4.5 |
| Total points | n/a | 227.8 |
| Win chance | ORL n/a · PHI n/a | ORL 38% · PHI 62% |
| Fair moneyline | ORL +166 · PHI -166 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: 76ers 116, Magic 112.
- 80% of simulations land between Magic by 12 and 76ers by 21.
Side by side
| ORL | PHI | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-3 | Record | 4-1 |
| -0.2 17 | Net rating | -0.9 20 |
| 110.4 22 | Offensive rating | 111.2 19 |
| 110.6 9 | Defensive rating | 112.1 16 |
| 52.4% 28 | Effective FG% | 52.7% 27 |
| 53.9% 9 | Opponent eFG% | 54.0% 11 |
| 13.9 11 | Turnovers per 100 | 13.1 5 |
| 24.8% 19 | Offensive rebound % | 25.1% 18 |
| 34.0% 29 | 3-point % | 34.7% 23 |
| 103.1 12 | Pace | 102.7 13 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-15 | 2025-26 | ORL 97 @ PHI 109 | PHI |
| 2026-01-09 | 2025-26 | PHI 103 @ ORL 91 | PHI |
| 2025-11-25 | 2025-26 | ORL 144 @ PHI 103 | ORL |
| 2025-10-27 | 2025-26 | ORL 124 @ PHI 136 | PHI |
| 2025-01-12 | 2024-25 | PHI 99 @ ORL 104 | ORL |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works