ORL
PHX
Orlando Magic @ Phoenix Suns
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
PHXPhoenix Suns
58% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 58% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Suns can win
- Simulation: the Suns win 5,760 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Home court: the Suns play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Three-point shooting: Suns 13th (35.9%), Magic 29th (34.0%).
- Body clock: the Magic cross 2 time zones.
- Offensive rebounding (share of misses): Suns 7th (28.7%), Magic 19th (24.8%).
Disadvantages Why Suns may not
- Upset odds: the Magic win 4,240 of 10,000 simulations (42%). A 58% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Defensive rebounding (share of misses): Magic 5th (75.2%), Suns 28th (71.4%).
- Getting to the line (free throws per shot): Magic 1st (0.25), Suns 28th (0.18).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Suns lose by 14 or more.
- History: the Magic won 4 of the last 5 meetings (rosters change, so this says little).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | PHX -2.2 |
| Total points | n/a | 227.6 |
| Win chance | ORL n/a · PHX n/a | ORL 42% · PHX 58% |
| Fair moneyline | ORL +136 · PHX -136 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Suns 115, Magic 113.
- 80% of simulations land between Magic by 14 and Suns by 19.
Side by side
| ORL | PHX | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-3 | Record | 1-2 |
| -0.2 17 | Net rating | +0.2 16 |
| 110.4 22 | Offensive rating | 111.8 17 |
| 110.6 9 | Defensive rating | 111.6 13 |
| 52.4% 28 | Effective FG% | 53.7% 19 |
| 53.9% 9 | Opponent eFG% | 54.3% 16 |
| 13.9 11 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.5 19 |
| 24.8% 19 | Offensive rebound % | 28.7% 7 |
| 34.0% 29 | 3-point % | 35.9% 13 |
| 103.1 12 | Pace | 100.3 26 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-31 | 2025-26 | PHX 111 @ ORL 115 | ORL |
| 2026-02-21 | 2025-26 | ORL 110 @ PHX 113 | PHX |
| 2024-12-08 | 2024-25 | PHX 110 @ ORL 115 | ORL |
| 2024-11-18 | 2024-25 | ORL 109 @ PHX 99 | ORL |
| 2024-01-28 | 2023-24 | PHX 98 @ ORL 113 | ORL |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works