ORL
POR
Orlando Magic @ Portland Trail Blazers
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
PORPortland Trail Blazers
65% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 65% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Trail Blazers can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Trail Blazers +8.8, Magic -12.5.
- Simulation: the Trail Blazers win 6,480 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.4 points to the Trail Blazers in our ratings.
- Home court: the Trail Blazers play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Offensive rebounding (share of misses): Trail Blazers 2nd (30.9%), Magic 19th (24.8%).
Disadvantages Why Trail Blazers may not
- Upset odds: the Magic win 3,520 of 10,000 simulations (35%). A 65% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Magic 11th (13.9), Trail Blazers 30th (16.3).
- Defensive rebounding (share of misses): Magic 5th (75.2%), Trail Blazers 24th (72.9%).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Trail Blazers lose by 12 or more.
- Weak spot: the Trail Blazers rank 30th of 30 in ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions) (16.3).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | POR -5.2 |
| Total points | n/a | 230.4 |
| Win chance | ORL n/a · POR n/a | ORL 35% · POR 65% |
| Fair moneyline | ORL +184 · POR -184 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Trail Blazers 118, Magic 113.
- 80% of simulations land between Magic by 12 and Trail Blazers by 22.
Side by side
| ORL | POR | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-3 | Record | 3-1 |
| -0.2 17 | Net rating | -0.5 18 |
| 110.4 22 | Offensive rating | 110.9 21 |
| 110.6 9 | Defensive rating | 111.4 12 |
| 52.4% 28 | Effective FG% | 53.2% 24 |
| 53.9% 9 | Opponent eFG% | 54.1% 12 |
| 13.9 11 | Turnovers per 100 | 16.3 30 |
| 24.8% 19 | Offensive rebound % | 30.9% 2 |
| 34.0% 29 | 3-point % | 34.1% 28 |
| 103.1 12 | Pace | 103.7 11 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-23 | 2025-26 | ORL 110 @ POR 106 | ORL |
| 2025-11-10 | 2025-26 | POR 112 @ ORL 115 | ORL |
| 2025-01-30 | 2024-25 | ORL 90 @ POR 119 | POR |
| 2025-01-23 | 2024-25 | POR 101 @ ORL 79 | POR |
| 2024-04-01 | 2023-24 | POR 103 @ ORL 104 | ORL |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works