ORL
UTA
Orlando Magic @ Utah Jazz
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
ORLOrlando Magic
53% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 53% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why Magic can win
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Magic 17th (-0.2), Jazz 27th (-7.9).
- Simulation: the Magic win 5,300 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.6 points to the Magic in our ratings.
- Point differential per game: Magic 17th (-0.1), Jazz 27th (-8.4).
- The Magic' offense (110.4 points per 100 possessions, 22nd in the NBA) meets a Jazz defense that ranks 29th.
Disadvantages Why Magic may not
- Upset odds: the Jazz win 4,700 of 10,000 simulations (47%). A 53% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Home court: the Jazz play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Magic lose by 16 or more.
- Body clock: the Magic cross 2 time zones.
- Weak spot: the Magic rank 29th of 30 in three-point shooting (34.0%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | ORL -0.7 |
| Total points | n/a | 233.7 |
| Win chance | ORL n/a · UTA n/a | ORL 53% · UTA 47% |
| Fair moneyline | ORL -113 · UTA +113 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Jazz 117, Magic 118.
- 80% of simulations land between Magic by 17 and Jazz by 16.
Side by side
| ORL | UTA | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-3 | Record | 1-4 |
| -0.2 17 | Net rating | -7.9 27 |
| 110.4 22 | Offensive rating | 111.1 20 |
| 110.6 9 | Defensive rating | 119.0 29 |
| 52.4% 28 | Effective FG% | 53.6% 20 |
| 53.9% 9 | Opponent eFG% | 57.6% 30 |
| 13.9 11 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.8 21 |
| 24.8% 19 | Offensive rebound % | 26.3% 12 |
| 34.0% 29 | 3-point % | 34.4% 24 |
| 103.1 12 | Pace | 105.6 2 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-07 | 2025-26 | UTA 117 @ ORL 120 | ORL |
| 2025-12-20 | 2025-26 | ORL 128 @ UTA 127 | ORL |
| 2025-02-01 | 2024-25 | ORL 99 @ UTA 113 | UTA |
| 2025-01-05 | 2024-25 | UTA 105 @ ORL 92 | UTA |
| 2024-02-29 | 2023-24 | UTA 107 @ ORL 115 | ORL |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works