ORL
WAS
Orlando Magic @ Washington Wizards
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
ORLOrlando Magic
52% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 52% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why Magic can win
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Magic 17th (-0.2), Wizards 30th (-10.9).
- Simulation: the Magic win 5,200 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Point differential per game: Magic 17th (-0.1), Wizards 30th (-11.4).
- Defensive rebounding (share of misses): Magic 5th (75.2%), Wizards 30th (70.0%).
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.5 points to the Magic in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why Magic may not
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Wizards -2.2, Magic -12.5.
- Upset odds: the Wizards win 4,800 of 10,000 simulations (48%). A 52% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Home court: the Wizards play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Three-point shooting: Wizards 18th (35.5%), Magic 29th (34.0%).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Magic lose by 16 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | ORL -0.7 |
| Total points | n/a | 231.7 |
| Win chance | ORL n/a · WAS n/a | ORL 52% · WAS 48% |
| Fair moneyline | ORL -108 · WAS +108 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Wizards 116, Magic 117.
- 80% of simulations land between Magic by 17 and Wizards by 16.
Side by side
| ORL | WAS | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-3 | Record | 2-3 |
| -0.2 17 | Net rating | -10.9 30 |
| 110.4 22 | Offensive rating | 108.2 29 |
| 110.6 9 | Defensive rating | 119.2 30 |
| 52.4% 28 | Effective FG% | 53.5% 21 |
| 53.9% 9 | Opponent eFG% | 55.9% 27 |
| 13.9 11 | Turnovers per 100 | 15.0 23 |
| 24.8% 19 | Offensive rebound % | 23.9% 22 |
| 34.0% 29 | 3-point % | 35.5% 18 |
| 103.1 12 | Pace | 104.3 5 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-12 | 2025-26 | WAS 131 @ ORL 136 | ORL |
| 2026-03-03 | 2025-26 | WAS 109 @ ORL 126 | ORL |
| 2026-01-06 | 2025-26 | ORL 112 @ WAS 120 | WAS |
| 2025-11-01 | 2025-26 | ORL 125 @ WAS 94 | ORL |
| 2025-04-03 | 2024-25 | ORL 109 @ WAS 97 | ORL |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works