PHI
ATL
Philadelphia 76ers @ Atlanta Hawks
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
ATLAtlanta Hawks
59% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 59% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Hawks can win
- Simulation: the Hawks win 5,870 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Home court: the Hawks play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Hawks 14th (+1.2), 76ers 20th (-0.9).
- Three-point shooting: Hawks 7th (36.7%), 76ers 23rd (34.7%).
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 0.9 points to the Hawks in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why Hawks may not
- Upset odds: the 76ers win 4,130 of 10,000 simulations (41%). A 59% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Getting to the line (free throws per shot): 76ers 7th (0.22), Hawks 27th (0.18).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Hawks lose by 14 or more.
- Weak spot: the Hawks rank 27th of 30 in getting to the line (free throws per shot) (0.18).
- Weak spot: the Hawks rank 20th of 30 in offensive rebounding (share of misses) (24.3%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | ATL -2.9 |
| Total points | n/a | 231.1 |
| Win chance | PHI n/a · ATL n/a | PHI 41% · ATL 59% |
| Fair moneyline | PHI +142 · ATL -142 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Hawks 117, 76ers 114.
- 80% of simulations land between 76ers by 14 and Hawks by 19.
Side by side
| PHI | ATL | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 3-3 |
| -0.9 20 | Net rating | +1.2 14 |
| 111.2 19 | Offensive rating | 112.5 14 |
| 112.1 16 | Defensive rating | 111.3 11 |
| 52.7% 27 | Effective FG% | 55.0% 11 |
| 54.0% 11 | Opponent eFG% | 54.6% 19 |
| 13.1 5 | Turnovers per 100 | 13.6 7 |
| 25.1% 18 | Offensive rebound % | 24.3% 20 |
| 34.7% 23 | 3-point % | 36.7% 7 |
| 102.7 13 | Pace | 104.3 6 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-07 | 2025-26 | PHI 116 @ ATL 125 | ATL |
| 2026-02-19 | 2025-26 | ATL 117 @ PHI 107 | ATL |
| 2025-12-14 | 2025-26 | PHI 117 @ ATL 120 | ATL |
| 2025-11-30 | 2025-26 | ATL 142 @ PHI 134 | ATL |
| 2025-04-11 | 2024-25 | ATL 124 @ PHI 110 | ATL |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works