PHI
BKN
Philadelphia 76ers @ Brooklyn Nets
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
PHIPhiladelphia 76ers
64% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 64% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why 76ers can win
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 4.5 points to the 76ers in our ratings.
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, 76ers +3.4, Nets -9.8.
- Simulation: the 76ers win 6,400 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): 76ers 5th (13.1), Nets 29th (15.8).
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 1.9 points to the 76ers in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why 76ers may not
- Home court: the Nets play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Upset odds: the Nets win 3,600 of 10,000 simulations (36%). A 64% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the 76ers lose by 12 or more.
- Defensive rebounding (share of misses): Nets 13th (74.1%), 76ers 26th (72.3%).
- Weak spot: the 76ers rank 27th of 30 in effective shooting (eFG%) (52.7%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | PHI -4.7 |
| Total points | n/a | 229 |
| Win chance | PHI n/a · BKN n/a | PHI 64% · BKN 36% |
| Fair moneyline | PHI -178 · BKN +178 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Nets 112, 76ers 117.
- 80% of simulations land between 76ers by 21 and Nets by 12.
Side by side
| PHI | BKN | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 0-4 |
| -0.9 20 | Net rating | -9.9 28 |
| 111.2 19 | Offensive rating | 105.9 30 |
| 112.1 16 | Defensive rating | 115.9 26 |
| 52.7% 27 | Effective FG% | 52.0% 30 |
| 54.0% 11 | Opponent eFG% | 57.2% 28 |
| 13.1 5 | Turnovers per 100 | 15.8 29 |
| 25.1% 18 | Offensive rebound % | 23.8% 23 |
| 34.7% 23 | 3-point % | 34.2% 27 |
| 102.7 13 | Pace | 100.4 24 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-14 | 2025-26 | BKN 97 @ PHI 104 | PHI |
| 2025-12-23 | 2025-26 | BKN 114 @ PHI 106 | BKN |
| 2025-11-28 | 2025-26 | PHI 115 @ BKN 103 | PHI |
| 2025-11-02 | 2025-26 | PHI 129 @ BKN 105 | PHI |
| 2025-02-22 | 2024-25 | BKN 105 @ PHI 103 | BKN |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works