PHI
BOS
Philadelphia 76ers @ Boston Celtics
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
BOSBoston Celtics
65% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 65% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Celtics can win
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Celtics 4th (+7.5), 76ers 20th (-0.9).
- Simulation: the Celtics win 6,470 of 10,000 simulated games.
- The Celtics' offense (116.6 points per 100 possessions, 2nd in the NBA) meets a 76ers defense that ranks 16th.
- Home court: the Celtics play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Point differential per game: Celtics 4th (+7.3), 76ers 20th (-1.0).
Disadvantages Why Celtics may not
- Upset odds: the 76ers win 3,530 of 10,000 simulations (35%). A 65% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: 76ers 9th (14.8), Celtics 27th (12.8).
- Getting to the line (free throws per shot): 76ers 7th (0.22), Celtics 29th (0.17).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Celtics lose by 12 or more.
- Weak spot: the Celtics rank 29th of 30 in getting to the line (free throws per shot) (0.17).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | BOS -5 |
| Total points | n/a | 225.3 |
| Win chance | PHI n/a · BOS n/a | PHI 35% · BOS 65% |
| Fair moneyline | PHI +183 · BOS -183 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Celtics 115, 76ers 110.
- 80% of simulations land between 76ers by 12 and Celtics by 22.
Side by side
| PHI | BOS | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 3-1 |
| -0.9 20 | Net rating | +7.5 4 |
| 111.2 19 | Offensive rating | 116.6 2 |
| 112.1 16 | Defensive rating | 109.1 5 |
| 52.7% 27 | Effective FG% | 55.1% 10 |
| 54.0% 11 | Opponent eFG% | 52.2% 4 |
| 13.1 5 | Turnovers per 100 | 12.7 2 |
| 25.1% 18 | Offensive rebound % | 29.0% 6 |
| 34.7% 23 | 3-point % | 36.5% 8 |
| 102.7 13 | Pace | 98.1 30 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | Playoffs | PHI 109 @ BOS 100 | PHI |
| 2026-04-30 | Playoffs | BOS 93 @ PHI 106 | PHI |
| 2026-04-28 | Playoffs | PHI 113 @ BOS 97 | PHI |
| 2026-04-26 | Playoffs | BOS 128 @ PHI 96 | BOS |
| 2026-04-24 | Playoffs | BOS 108 @ PHI 100 | BOS |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works