PHI
CHI
Philadelphia 76ers @ Chicago Bulls
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
PHIPhiladelphia 76ers
63% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 63% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why 76ers can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, 76ers +3.4, Bulls -16.2.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 4.2 points to the 76ers in our ratings.
- Simulation: the 76ers win 6,310 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 2.0 points to the 76ers in our ratings.
- Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: 76ers 9th (14.8), Bulls 29th (12.2).
Disadvantages Why 76ers may not
- Home court: the Bulls play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Upset odds: the Bulls win 3,690 of 10,000 simulations (37%). A 63% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Defensive rebounding (share of misses): Bulls 6th (75.1%), 76ers 26th (72.3%).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the 76ers lose by 12 or more.
- History: the Bulls won 4 of the last 5 meetings (rosters change, so this says little).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | PHI -4.5 |
| Total points | n/a | 236.6 |
| Win chance | PHI n/a · CHI n/a | PHI 63% · CHI 37% |
| Fair moneyline | PHI -171 · CHI +171 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Bulls 116, 76ers 121.
- 80% of simulations land between 76ers by 21 and Bulls by 12.
Side by side
| PHI | CHI | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 1-4 |
| -0.9 20 | Net rating | -5.5 24 |
| 111.2 19 | Offensive rating | 110.1 25 |
| 112.1 16 | Defensive rating | 115.6 25 |
| 52.7% 27 | Effective FG% | 54.3% 14 |
| 54.0% 11 | Opponent eFG% | 55.3% 21 |
| 13.1 5 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.5 17 |
| 25.1% 18 | Offensive rebound % | 23.4% 26 |
| 34.7% 23 | 3-point % | 35.0% 22 |
| 102.7 13 | Pace | 105.5 3 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-25 | 2025-26 | CHI 137 @ PHI 157 | PHI |
| 2025-12-26 | 2025-26 | PHI 102 @ CHI 109 | CHI |
| 2025-11-04 | 2025-26 | PHI 111 @ CHI 113 | CHI |
| 2025-04-13 | 2024-25 | CHI 122 @ PHI 102 | CHI |
| 2025-02-24 | 2024-25 | CHI 142 @ PHI 110 | CHI |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works