PHI
CLE
Philadelphia 76ers @ Cleveland Cavaliers
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
CLECleveland Cavaliers
57% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 57% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Cavaliers can win
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Cavaliers 10th (+2.7), 76ers 20th (-0.9).
- Simulation: the Cavaliers win 5,740 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Home court: the Cavaliers play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Point differential per game: Cavaliers 10th (+2.7), 76ers 20th (-1.0).
- The Cavaliers' offense (114.5 points per 100 possessions, 9th in the NBA) meets a 76ers defense that ranks 16th.
Disadvantages Why Cavaliers may not
- Upset odds: the 76ers win 4,260 of 10,000 simulations (43%). A 57% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): 76ers 5th (13.1), Cavaliers 15th (14.2).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Cavaliers lose by 14 or more.
- Shooting variance: one hot or cold night from three can swing an NBA game by 15 points.
- Late scratches: stars can be ruled out right up to tip-off, after our last update.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | CLE -2.3 |
| Total points | n/a | 229.5 |
| Win chance | PHI n/a · CLE n/a | PHI 43% · CLE 57% |
| Fair moneyline | PHI +135 · CLE -135 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Cavaliers 116, 76ers 114.
- 80% of simulations land between 76ers by 14 and Cavaliers by 19.
Side by side
| PHI | CLE | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 3-2 |
| -0.9 20 | Net rating | +2.7 10 |
| 111.2 19 | Offensive rating | 114.5 9 |
| 112.1 16 | Defensive rating | 111.8 15 |
| 52.7% 27 | Effective FG% | 55.5% 7 |
| 54.0% 11 | Opponent eFG% | 54.2% 15 |
| 13.1 5 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.2 15 |
| 25.1% 18 | Offensive rebound % | 27.0% 8 |
| 34.7% 23 | 3-point % | 35.4% 19 |
| 102.7 13 | Pace | 102.6 14 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-22 | 2026-27 | CLE 106 @ PHI 114 | PHI |
| 2026-03-09 | 2025-26 | PHI 101 @ CLE 115 | CLE |
| 2026-01-16 | 2025-26 | CLE 117 @ PHI 115 | CLE |
| 2026-01-14 | 2025-26 | CLE 133 @ PHI 107 | CLE |
| 2025-11-05 | 2025-26 | PHI 121 @ CLE 132 | CLE |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works