PHI
DAL
Philadelphia 76ers @ Dallas Mavericks
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
DALDallas Mavericks
54% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 54% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why Mavericks can win
- Home court: the Mavericks play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Simulation: the Mavericks win 5,380 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Defensive rebounding (share of misses): Mavericks 16th (73.9%), 76ers 26th (72.3%).
- Relative strength: the Mavericks rank 13th of 30 in ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions) (14.0).
- Relative strength: the Mavericks rank 13th of 30 in getting to the line (free throws per shot) (0.21).
Disadvantages Why Mavericks may not
- Upset odds: the 76ers win 4,620 of 10,000 simulations (46%). A 54% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: 76ers 9th (14.8), Mavericks 26th (12.8).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Mavericks lose by 15 or more.
- History: the 76ers won 5 of the last 5 meetings (rosters change, so this says little).
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): 76ers 5th (13.1), Mavericks 13th (14.0).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | DAL -1.2 |
| Total points | n/a | 229.5 |
| Win chance | PHI n/a · DAL n/a | PHI 46% · DAL 54% |
| Fair moneyline | PHI +117 · DAL -117 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Mavericks 116, 76ers 114.
- 80% of simulations land between 76ers by 15 and Mavericks by 18.
Side by side
| PHI | DAL | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 3-2 |
| -0.9 20 | Net rating | -4.8 23 |
| 111.2 19 | Offensive rating | 108.7 26 |
| 112.1 16 | Defensive rating | 113.5 20 |
| 52.7% 27 | Effective FG% | 52.9% 25 |
| 54.0% 11 | Opponent eFG% | 54.5% 17 |
| 13.1 5 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.0 13 |
| 25.1% 18 | Offensive rebound % | 23.4% 25 |
| 34.7% 23 | 3-point % | 34.4% 26 |
| 102.7 13 | Pace | 105.0 4 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-01 | 2025-26 | PHI 123 @ DAL 108 | PHI |
| 2025-12-20 | 2025-26 | DAL 114 @ PHI 121 | PHI |
| 2025-03-16 | 2024-25 | PHI 130 @ DAL 125 | PHI |
| 2025-02-04 | 2024-25 | DAL 116 @ PHI 118 | PHI |
| 2024-03-03 | 2023-24 | PHI 120 @ DAL 116 | PHI |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works