PHI
DEN
Philadelphia 76ers @ Denver Nuggets
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
DENDenver Nuggets
55% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 55% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why Nuggets can win
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Nuggets 7th (+4.1), 76ers 20th (-0.9).
- The Nuggets' offense (118.2 points per 100 possessions, 1st in the NBA) meets a 76ers defense that ranks 16th.
- Home court: the Nuggets play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Simulation: the Nuggets win 5,470 of 10,000 simulated games.
- The Nuggets' shooting (56.9% eFG%, 2nd in the NBA) meets a 76ers defense that ranks 11th.
Disadvantages Why Nuggets may not
- Upset odds: the 76ers win 4,530 of 10,000 simulations (45%). A 55% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, 76ers +3.4, Nuggets -3.2.
- Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: 76ers 9th (14.8), Nuggets 30th (11.9).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Nuggets lose by 15 or more.
- Weak spot: the Nuggets rank 30th of 30 in turnovers forced per 100 possessions (11.9).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | DEN -1.9 |
| Total points | n/a | 228.7 |
| Win chance | PHI n/a · DEN n/a | PHI 45% · DEN 55% |
| Fair moneyline | PHI +121 · DEN -121 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Nuggets 115, 76ers 114.
- 80% of simulations land between 76ers by 15 and Nuggets by 19.
Side by side
| PHI | DEN | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 2-2 |
| -0.9 20 | Net rating | +4.1 7 |
| 111.2 19 | Offensive rating | 118.2 1 |
| 112.1 16 | Defensive rating | 114.1 21 |
| 52.7% 27 | Effective FG% | 56.9% 2 |
| 54.0% 11 | Opponent eFG% | 54.1% 13 |
| 13.1 5 | Turnovers per 100 | 12.7 3 |
| 25.1% 18 | Offensive rebound % | 23.3% 28 |
| 34.7% 23 | 3-point % | 38.8% 1 |
| 102.7 13 | Pace | 102.1 20 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-17 | 2025-26 | PHI 96 @ DEN 124 | DEN |
| 2026-01-05 | 2025-26 | DEN 125 @ PHI 124 | DEN |
| 2025-01-31 | 2024-25 | DEN 137 @ PHI 134 | DEN |
| 2025-01-21 | 2024-25 | PHI 109 @ DEN 144 | DEN |
| 2024-01-27 | 2023-24 | PHI 105 @ DEN 111 | DEN |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works