PHI
DET
Philadelphia 76ers @ Detroit Pistons
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
DETDetroit Pistons
69% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 69% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why Pistons can win
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Pistons 5th (+7.0), 76ers 20th (-0.9).
- Simulation: the Pistons win 6,890 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.6 points to the Pistons in our ratings.
- Home court: the Pistons play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Point differential per game: Pistons 5th (+7.2), 76ers 20th (-1.0).
Disadvantages Why Pistons may not
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): 76ers 5th (13.1), Pistons 24th (15.0).
- Upset odds: the 76ers win 3,110 of 10,000 simulations (31%). A 69% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Pistons lose by 11 or more.
- Weak spot: the Pistons rank 24th of 30 in ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions) (15.0).
- Shooting variance: one hot or cold night from three can swing an NBA game by 15 points.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | DET -6.1 |
| Total points | n/a | 222.1 |
| Win chance | PHI n/a · DET n/a | PHI 31% · DET 69% |
| Fair moneyline | PHI +222 · DET -222 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Pistons 115, 76ers 108.
- 80% of simulations land between 76ers by 11 and Pistons by 23.
Side by side
| PHI | DET | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 4-1 |
| -0.9 20 | Net rating | +7.0 5 |
| 111.2 19 | Offensive rating | 113.2 12 |
| 112.1 16 | Defensive rating | 106.2 2 |
| 52.7% 27 | Effective FG% | 54.2% 16 |
| 54.0% 11 | Opponent eFG% | 51.4% 1 |
| 13.1 5 | Turnovers per 100 | 15.0 24 |
| 25.1% 18 | Offensive rebound % | 30.8% 3 |
| 34.7% 23 | 3-point % | 35.8% 15 |
| 102.7 13 | Pace | 102.1 19 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-25 | 2026-27 | DET 106 @ PHI 93 | DET |
| 2026-04-04 | 2025-26 | DET 116 @ PHI 93 | DET |
| 2026-03-12 | 2025-26 | PHI 109 @ DET 131 | DET |
| 2025-11-14 | 2025-26 | PHI 105 @ DET 114 | DET |
| 2025-11-09 | 2025-26 | DET 111 @ PHI 108 | DET |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works