PHI
GSW
Philadelphia 76ers @ Golden State Warriors
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
GSWGolden State Warriors
52% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 52% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why Warriors can win
- Home court: the Warriors play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Simulation: the Warriors win 5,180 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Body clock: the 76ers cross 3 time zones.
- Three-point shooting: Warriors 16th (35.7%), 76ers 23rd (34.7%).
- Offensive rebounding (share of misses): Warriors 11th (26.3%), 76ers 18th (25.1%).
Disadvantages Why Warriors may not
- Upset odds: the 76ers win 4,820 of 10,000 simulations (48%). A 52% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): 76ers 5th (13.1), Warriors 27th (15.5).
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 0.9 points to the 76ers in our ratings.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Warriors lose by 16 or more.
- Getting to the line (free throws per shot): 76ers 7th (0.22), Warriors 24th (0.20).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | GSW -0.7 |
| Total points | n/a | 229.8 |
| Win chance | PHI n/a · GSW n/a | PHI 48% · GSW 52% |
| Fair moneyline | PHI +108 · GSW -108 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Warriors 116, 76ers 115.
- 80% of simulations land between 76ers by 16 and Warriors by 17.
Side by side
| PHI | GSW | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 2-3 |
| -0.9 20 | Net rating | -0.7 19 |
| 111.2 19 | Offensive rating | 112.2 16 |
| 112.1 16 | Defensive rating | 112.9 17 |
| 52.7% 27 | Effective FG% | 55.0% 12 |
| 54.0% 11 | Opponent eFG% | 55.6% 24 |
| 13.1 5 | Turnovers per 100 | 15.5 27 |
| 25.1% 18 | Offensive rebound % | 26.3% 11 |
| 34.7% 23 | 3-point % | 35.7% 16 |
| 102.7 13 | Pace | 102.3 17 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-03 | 2025-26 | PHI 113 @ GSW 94 | PHI |
| 2025-12-04 | 2025-26 | GSW 98 @ PHI 99 | PHI |
| 2025-03-01 | 2024-25 | GSW 119 @ PHI 126 | PHI |
| 2025-01-02 | 2024-25 | PHI 105 @ GSW 139 | GSW |
| 2024-02-07 | 2023-24 | GSW 127 @ PHI 104 | GSW |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works