PHI
HOU
Philadelphia 76ers @ Houston Rockets
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
HOUHouston Rockets
72% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 72% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why Rockets can win
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 3.5 points to the Rockets in our ratings.
- Simulation: the Rockets win 7,160 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Rockets +14.2, 76ers +3.4.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Rockets 6th (+5.2), 76ers 20th (-0.9).
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 2.6 points to the Rockets in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why Rockets may not
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): 76ers 5th (13.1), Rockets 26th (15.4).
- Upset odds: the 76ers win 2,840 of 10,000 simulations (28%). A 72% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Rockets lose by 9 or more.
- Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: 76ers 9th (14.8), Rockets 19th (13.8).
- Weak spot: the Rockets rank 26th of 30 in ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions) (15.4).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | HOU -7.8 |
| Total points | n/a | 225.4 |
| Win chance | PHI n/a · HOU n/a | PHI 28% · HOU 72% |
| Fair moneyline | PHI +252 · HOU -252 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Rockets 117, 76ers 109.
- 80% of simulations land between 76ers by 9 and Rockets by 24.
Side by side
| PHI | HOU | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 5-0 |
| -0.9 20 | Net rating | +5.2 6 |
| 111.2 19 | Offensive rating | 114.6 8 |
| 112.1 16 | Defensive rating | 109.4 6 |
| 52.7% 27 | Effective FG% | 54.0% 18 |
| 54.0% 11 | Opponent eFG% | 53.0% 6 |
| 13.1 5 | Turnovers per 100 | 15.4 26 |
| 25.1% 18 | Offensive rebound % | 34.3% 1 |
| 34.7% 23 | 3-point % | 36.2% 11 |
| 102.7 13 | Pace | 100.0 27 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 2025-26 | PHI 102 @ HOU 113 | HOU |
| 2026-01-22 | 2025-26 | HOU 122 @ PHI 128 | PHI |
| 2025-03-17 | 2024-25 | PHI 137 @ HOU 144 | HOU |
| 2024-11-27 | 2024-25 | HOU 122 @ PHI 115 | HOU |
| 2024-01-15 | 2023-24 | HOU 115 @ PHI 124 | PHI |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works