PHI
IND
Philadelphia 76ers @ Indiana Pacers
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
PHIPhiladelphia 76ers
56% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 56% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why 76ers can win
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.5 points to the 76ers in our ratings.
- Simulation: the 76ers win 5,610 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): 76ers 20th (-0.9), Pacers 26th (-7.2).
- Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: 76ers 9th (14.8), Pacers 23rd (13.1).
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 0.9 points to the 76ers in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why 76ers may not
- Upset odds: the Pacers win 4,390 of 10,000 simulations (44%). A 56% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Home court: the Pacers play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the 76ers lose by 15 or more.
- Defensive rebounding (share of misses): Pacers 14th (74.0%), 76ers 26th (72.3%).
- Weak spot: the 76ers rank 27th of 30 in effective shooting (eFG%) (52.7%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | PHI -1.7 |
| Total points | n/a | 229.8 |
| Win chance | PHI n/a · IND n/a | PHI 56% · IND 44% |
| Fair moneyline | PHI -128 · IND +128 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Pacers 114, 76ers 116.
- 80% of simulations land between 76ers by 19 and Pacers by 15.
Side by side
| PHI | IND | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 2-3 |
| -0.9 20 | Net rating | -7.2 26 |
| 111.2 19 | Offensive rating | 108.4 27 |
| 112.1 16 | Defensive rating | 115.6 24 |
| 52.7% 27 | Effective FG% | 53.3% 22 |
| 54.0% 11 | Opponent eFG% | 55.4% 22 |
| 13.1 5 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.0 12 |
| 25.1% 18 | Offensive rebound % | 21.8% 29 |
| 34.7% 23 | 3-point % | 35.3% 20 |
| 102.7 13 | Pace | 103.9 9 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-28 | 2026-27 | PHI 114 @ IND 109 | PHI |
| 2026-04-10 | 2025-26 | PHI 105 @ IND 94 | PHI |
| 2026-02-24 | 2025-26 | PHI 135 @ IND 114 | PHI |
| 2026-01-19 | 2025-26 | IND 104 @ PHI 113 | PHI |
| 2025-12-12 | 2025-26 | IND 105 @ PHI 115 | PHI |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works