PHI
LAC
Philadelphia 76ers @ LA Clippers
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
LACLA Clippers
54% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 54% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why Clippers can win
- Home court: the Clippers play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Simulation: the Clippers win 5,440 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Three-point shooting: Clippers 5th (36.9%), 76ers 23rd (34.7%).
- The Clippers' shooting (55.9% eFG%, 4th in the NBA) meets a 76ers defense that ranks 11th.
- The Clippers' offense (114.0 points per 100 possessions, 10th in the NBA) meets a 76ers defense that ranks 16th.
Disadvantages Why Clippers may not
- Upset odds: the 76ers win 4,560 of 10,000 simulations (46%). A 54% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): 76ers 5th (13.1), Clippers 20th (14.7).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Clippers lose by 15 or more.
- Weak spot: the Clippers rank 25th of 30 in defensive rebounding (share of misses) (72.8%).
- Weak spot: the Clippers rank 24th of 30 in offensive rebounding (share of misses) (23.8%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | LAC -1.4 |
| Total points | n/a | 224.2 |
| Win chance | PHI n/a · LAC n/a | PHI 46% · LAC 54% |
| Fair moneyline | PHI +119 · LAC -119 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Clippers 113, 76ers 112.
- 80% of simulations land between 76ers by 15 and Clippers by 18.
Side by side
| PHI | LAC | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 1-3 |
| -0.9 20 | Net rating | +0.9 15 |
| 111.2 19 | Offensive rating | 114.0 10 |
| 112.1 16 | Defensive rating | 113.0 18 |
| 52.7% 27 | Effective FG% | 55.9% 4 |
| 54.0% 11 | Opponent eFG% | 54.6% 18 |
| 13.1 5 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.7 20 |
| 25.1% 18 | Offensive rebound % | 23.8% 24 |
| 34.7% 23 | 3-point % | 36.9% 5 |
| 102.7 13 | Pace | 99.6 29 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-02 | 2025-26 | PHI 128 @ LAC 113 | PHI |
| 2025-11-17 | 2025-26 | LAC 108 @ PHI 110 | PHI |
| 2024-11-24 | 2024-25 | LAC 125 @ PHI 99 | LAC |
| 2024-11-06 | 2024-25 | PHI 98 @ LAC 110 | LAC |
| 2024-03-27 | 2023-24 | LAC 108 @ PHI 107 | LAC |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works