PHI
LAL
Philadelphia 76ers @ Los Angeles Lakers
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
LALLos Angeles Lakers
66% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 66% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why Lakers can win
- Simulation: the Lakers win 6,550 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Home court: the Lakers play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- The Lakers' shooting (57.2% eFG%, 1st in the NBA) meets a 76ers defense that ranks 11th.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.0 points to the Lakers in our ratings.
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Lakers +9.6, 76ers +3.4.
Disadvantages Why Lakers may not
- Upset odds: the 76ers win 3,450 of 10,000 simulations (34%). A 66% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): 76ers 5th (13.1), Lakers 22nd (14.9).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Lakers lose by 11 or more.
- Weak spot: the Lakers rank 22nd of 30 in ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions) (14.9).
- Weak spot: the Lakers rank 21st of 30 in offensive rebounding (share of misses) (24.2%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | LAL -5.3 |
| Total points | n/a | 228.1 |
| Win chance | PHI n/a · LAL n/a | PHI 34% · LAL 66% |
| Fair moneyline | PHI +190 · LAL -190 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Lakers 117, 76ers 112.
- 80% of simulations land between 76ers by 11 and Lakers by 22.
Side by side
| PHI | LAL | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 4-1 |
| -0.9 20 | Net rating | +1.5 13 |
| 111.2 19 | Offensive rating | 114.7 6 |
| 112.1 16 | Defensive rating | 113.2 19 |
| 52.7% 27 | Effective FG% | 57.2% 1 |
| 54.0% 11 | Opponent eFG% | 55.2% 20 |
| 13.1 5 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.9 22 |
| 25.1% 18 | Offensive rebound % | 24.2% 21 |
| 34.7% 23 | 3-point % | 36.3% 9 |
| 102.7 13 | Pace | 100.5 23 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-05 | 2025-26 | PHI 115 @ LAL 119 | LAL |
| 2025-12-07 | 2025-26 | LAL 112 @ PHI 108 | LAL |
| 2025-01-28 | 2024-25 | LAL 104 @ PHI 118 | PHI |
| 2024-11-08 | 2024-25 | PHI 106 @ LAL 116 | LAL |
| 2024-03-22 | 2023-24 | PHI 94 @ LAL 101 | LAL |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works