PHI
MEM
Philadelphia 76ers @ Memphis Grizzlies
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
MEMMemphis Grizzlies
58% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 58% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Grizzlies can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Grizzlies +12.0, 76ers +3.4.
- Simulation: the Grizzlies win 5,780 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Home court: the Grizzlies play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Three-point shooting: Grizzlies 17th (35.5%), 76ers 23rd (34.7%).
- Relative strength: the Grizzlies rank 8th of 30 in turnovers forced per 100 possessions (14.9).
Disadvantages Why Grizzlies may not
- Upset odds: the 76ers win 4,220 of 10,000 simulations (42%). A 58% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): 76ers 5th (13.1), Grizzlies 18th (14.5).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Grizzlies lose by 14 or more.
- Weak spot: the Grizzlies rank 29th of 30 in defensive rebounding (share of misses) (71.0%).
- Getting to the line (free throws per shot): 76ers 7th (0.22), Grizzlies 19th (0.20).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | MEM -2.3 |
| Total points | n/a | 228.3 |
| Win chance | PHI n/a · MEM n/a | PHI 42% · MEM 58% |
| Fair moneyline | PHI +137 · MEM -137 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Grizzlies 116, 76ers 113.
- 80% of simulations land between 76ers by 14 and Grizzlies by 19.
Side by side
| PHI | MEM | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 5-0 |
| -0.9 20 | Net rating | -4.8 22 |
| 111.2 19 | Offensive rating | 110.2 23 |
| 112.1 16 | Defensive rating | 114.9 22 |
| 52.7% 27 | Effective FG% | 53.3% 23 |
| 54.0% 11 | Opponent eFG% | 55.8% 26 |
| 13.1 5 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.5 18 |
| 25.1% 18 | Offensive rebound % | 25.2% 17 |
| 34.7% 23 | 3-point % | 35.5% 17 |
| 102.7 13 | Pace | 104.3 7 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-10 | 2025-26 | MEM 129 @ PHI 139 | PHI |
| 2025-12-30 | 2025-26 | PHI 139 @ MEM 136 | PHI |
| 2024-11-20 | 2024-25 | PHI 111 @ MEM 117 | MEM |
| 2024-11-02 | 2024-25 | MEM 124 @ PHI 107 | MEM |
| 2024-04-06 | 2023-24 | PHI 116 @ MEM 96 | PHI |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works