PHI
MIA
Philadelphia 76ers @ Miami Heat
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
PHIPhiladelphia 76ers
51% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 51% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why 76ers can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, 76ers +3.4, Heat -7.8.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.9 points to the 76ers in our ratings.
- Simulation: the 76ers win 5,110 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: 76ers 9th (14.8), Heat 17th (14.2).
- Getting to the line (free throws per shot): 76ers 7th (0.22), Heat 16th (0.21).
Disadvantages Why 76ers may not
- Upset odds: the Heat win 4,890 of 10,000 simulations (49%). A 51% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Home court: the Heat play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Heat 12th (+1.6), 76ers 20th (-0.9).
- Defensive rebounding (share of misses): Heat 8th (74.6%), 76ers 26th (72.3%).
- Point differential per game: Heat 12th (+1.7), 76ers 20th (-1.0).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | PHI -0.6 |
| Total points | n/a | 233.8 |
| Win chance | PHI n/a · MIA n/a | PHI 51% · MIA 49% |
| Fair moneyline | PHI -104 · MIA +104 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Heat 117, 76ers 117.
- 80% of simulations land between 76ers by 17 and Heat by 16.
Side by side
| PHI | MIA | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 1-4 |
| -0.9 20 | Net rating | +1.6 12 |
| 111.2 19 | Offensive rating | 113.4 11 |
| 112.1 16 | Defensive rating | 111.8 14 |
| 52.7% 27 | Effective FG% | 54.1% 17 |
| 54.0% 11 | Opponent eFG% | 54.2% 14 |
| 13.1 5 | Turnovers per 100 | 12.8 4 |
| 25.1% 18 | Offensive rebound % | 25.2% 16 |
| 34.7% 23 | 3-point % | 35.9% 12 |
| 102.7 13 | Pace | 106.3 1 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-30 | 2025-26 | PHI 109 @ MIA 119 | MIA |
| 2026-02-26 | 2025-26 | MIA 117 @ PHI 124 | PHI |
| 2025-11-23 | 2025-26 | MIA 127 @ PHI 117 | MIA |
| 2025-04-07 | 2024-25 | PHI 105 @ MIA 117 | MIA |
| 2025-03-29 | 2024-25 | MIA 118 @ PHI 95 | MIA |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works