PHI
MIL
Philadelphia 76ers @ Milwaukee Bucks
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
PHIPhiladelphia 76ers
64% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 64% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why 76ers can win
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 4.5 points to the 76ers in our ratings.
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, 76ers +3.4, Bucks -10.8.
- Simulation: the 76ers win 6,430 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 1.9 points to the 76ers in our ratings.
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): 76ers 5th (13.1), Bucks 25th (15.2).
Disadvantages Why 76ers may not
- Home court: the Bucks play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Upset odds: the Bucks win 3,570 of 10,000 simulations (36%). A 64% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Three-point shooting: Bucks 2nd (38.4%), 76ers 23rd (34.7%).
- The Bucks' shooting (56.3% eFG%, 3rd in the NBA) meets a 76ers defense that ranks 11th.
- Defensive rebounding (share of misses): Bucks 11th (74.2%), 76ers 26th (72.3%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | PHI -4.7 |
| Total points | n/a | 229.2 |
| Win chance | PHI n/a · MIL n/a | PHI 64% · MIL 36% |
| Fair moneyline | PHI -180 · MIL +180 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Bucks 113, 76ers 117.
- 80% of simulations land between 76ers by 22 and Bucks by 12.
Side by side
| PHI | MIL | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 1-4 |
| -0.9 20 | Net rating | -6.4 25 |
| 111.2 19 | Offensive rating | 110.1 24 |
| 112.1 16 | Defensive rating | 116.5 27 |
| 52.7% 27 | Effective FG% | 56.3% 3 |
| 54.0% 11 | Opponent eFG% | 55.7% 25 |
| 13.1 5 | Turnovers per 100 | 15.2 25 |
| 25.1% 18 | Offensive rebound % | 21.7% 30 |
| 34.7% 23 | 3-point % | 38.4% 2 |
| 102.7 13 | Pace | 100.6 22 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | 2026-27 | MIL 116 @ PHI 127 | PHI |
| 2026-04-12 | 2025-26 | MIL 106 @ PHI 126 | PHI |
| 2026-01-27 | 2025-26 | MIL 122 @ PHI 139 | PHI |
| 2025-12-05 | 2025-26 | PHI 116 @ MIL 101 | PHI |
| 2025-11-20 | 2025-26 | PHI 123 @ MIL 114 | PHI |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works