PHI
NOP
Philadelphia 76ers @ New Orleans Pelicans
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
PHIPhiladelphia 76ers
54% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 54% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why 76ers can win
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.2 points to the 76ers in our ratings.
- Simulation: the 76ers win 5,400 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 0.8 points to the 76ers in our ratings.
- Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: 76ers 9th (14.8), Pelicans 18th (14.1).
- Strength: the 76ers rank 5th of 30 in ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions) (13.1).
Disadvantages Why 76ers may not
- Upset odds: the Pelicans win 4,600 of 10,000 simulations (46%). A 54% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Home court: the Pelicans play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the 76ers lose by 15 or more.
- History: the Pelicans won 4 of the last 5 meetings (rosters change, so this says little).
- Weak spot: the 76ers rank 27th of 30 in effective shooting (eFG%) (52.7%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | PHI -1.4 |
| Total points | n/a | 233.3 |
| Win chance | PHI n/a · NOP n/a | PHI 54% · NOP 46% |
| Fair moneyline | PHI -118 · NOP +118 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Pelicans 116, 76ers 118.
- 80% of simulations land between 76ers by 18 and Pelicans by 15.
Side by side
| PHI | NOP | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 1-4 |
| -0.9 20 | Net rating | -4.2 21 |
| 111.2 19 | Offensive rating | 111.2 18 |
| 112.1 16 | Defensive rating | 115.4 23 |
| 52.7% 27 | Effective FG% | 52.8% 26 |
| 54.0% 11 | Opponent eFG% | 55.5% 23 |
| 13.1 5 | Turnovers per 100 | 13.8 10 |
| 25.1% 18 | Offensive rebound % | 26.7% 9 |
| 34.7% 23 | 3-point % | 34.4% 25 |
| 102.7 13 | Pace | 104.1 8 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-21 | 2025-26 | PHI 111 @ NOP 126 | NOP |
| 2026-01-31 | 2025-26 | NOP 114 @ PHI 124 | PHI |
| 2025-03-24 | 2024-25 | PHI 99 @ NOP 112 | NOP |
| 2025-01-10 | 2024-25 | NOP 123 @ PHI 115 | NOP |
| 2024-03-08 | 2023-24 | NOP 103 @ PHI 95 | NOP |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works