PHI

Philadelphia 76ers @ New York Knicks

Any-day matchup · ratings as of Oct 30, 7:50 PM ET

NYK

Our pick

NYKNew York Knicks

65% to win

A probability, not a promise. A 65% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.

AZMango model

PHI 35%NYK 65%

No market price for this matchup yet, so there is nothing to compare against.

Advantages Why Knicks can win

Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Knicks 3rd (+7.6), 76ers 20th (-0.9).
Simulation: the Knicks win 6,520 of 10,000 simulated games.
The Knicks' offense (116.4 points per 100 possessions, 3rd in the NBA) meets a 76ers defense that ranks 16th.
Point differential per game: Knicks 3rd (+7.6), 76ers 20th (-1.0).
Home court: the Knicks play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.

Disadvantages Why Knicks may not

Upset odds: the 76ers win 3,480 of 10,000 simulations (35%). A 65% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Getting to the line (free throws per shot): 76ers 7th (0.22), Knicks 25th (0.19).
Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Knicks lose by 12 or more.
Weak spot: the Knicks rank 25th of 30 in getting to the line (free throws per shot) (0.19).
Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: 76ers 9th (14.8), Knicks 15th (14.3).

The line and our numbers

	Market	AZMango
Spread	No line yet	NYK -5.1
Total points	n/a	222.6
Win chance	PHI n/a · NYK n/a	PHI 35% · NYK 65%
Fair moneyline		PHI +188 · NYK -188

No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.

10,000 simulated games, possession by possession

Typical score: Knicks 114, 76ers 109.
80% of simulations land between 76ers by 12 and Knicks by 22.

See live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel

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Side by side

PHI		NYK
4-1	Record	2-3
-0.9 20	Net rating	+7.6 3
111.2 19	Offensive rating	116.4 3
112.1 16	Defensive rating	108.7 4
52.7% 27	Effective FG%	55.6% 5
54.0% 11	Opponent eFG%	53.3% 7
13.1 5	Turnovers per 100	13.7 9
25.1% 18	Offensive rebound %	29.3% 5
34.7% 23	3-point %	37.5% 3
102.7 13	Pace	99.8 28

Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).

Last 5 meetings

Date	Season	Score	Winner
2026-10-20	2026-27	PHI 106 @ NYK 100	PHI
2026-05-10	Playoffs	NYK 144 @ PHI 114	NYK
2026-05-08	Playoffs	NYK 108 @ PHI 94	NYK
2026-05-06	Playoffs	PHI 102 @ NYK 108	NYK
2026-05-04	Playoffs	PHI 98 @ NYK 137	NYK

No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.

Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works

Player matchups

PHI

Tyrese Maxey G

27.7 pts, 4.1 reb, 6.4 ast in 38.3 min, 46% FG

vs a defense ranked 4 of 30 (opponent eFG% 53.3%)

PHI

Joel Embiid C

26 pts, 7.8 reb, 4.2 ast in 32.1 min, 48% FG

vs a defense ranked 4 of 30 (opponent eFG% 53.3%)

PHI

Jaylen Brown G

20.6 pts, 6.6 reb, 4.2 ast in 36.4 min, 44% FG

vs a defense ranked 4 of 30 (opponent eFG% 53.3%)

NYK

Jalen Brunson G

26.5 pts, 3.3 reb, 6.6 ast in 35.5 min, 46% FG

vs a defense ranked 16 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.0%)

NYK

Karl-Anthony Towns C

19.3 pts, 11.7 reb, 3.4 ast in 30.8 min, 51% FG

vs a defense ranked 16 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.0%)

NYK

OG Anunoby F

17.5 pts, 5.5 reb, 2.1 ast in 33.6 min, 49% FG

vs a defense ranked 16 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.0%)

Per-game averages, 2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons. Ordered by Game Score.

Last time they met

The 76ers beat the Knicks 106-100 on the road (2026-10-20). The box score was close to even; it came down to the last few possessions. Tyrese Maxey led the 76ers with 28 points.