PHI
OKC
Philadelphia 76ers @ Oklahoma City Thunder
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
OKCOklahoma City Thunder
67% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 67% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why Thunder can win
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Thunder 1st (+10.0), 76ers 20th (-0.9).
- Simulation: the Thunder win 6,710 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.5 points to the Thunder in our ratings.
- Point differential per game: Thunder 1st (+10.2), 76ers 20th (-1.0).
- Home court: the Thunder play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
Disadvantages Why Thunder may not
- Upset odds: the 76ers win 3,290 of 10,000 simulations (33%). A 67% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Thunder lose by 11 or more.
- Weak spot: the Thunder rank 27th of 30 in offensive rebounding (share of misses) (23.4%).
- Offensive rebounding (share of misses): 76ers 18th (25.1%), Thunder 27th (23.4%).
- Getting to the line (free throws per shot): 76ers 7th (0.22), Thunder 14th (0.21).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | OKC -6 |
| Total points | n/a | 223.7 |
| Win chance | PHI n/a · OKC n/a | PHI 33% · OKC 67% |
| Fair moneyline | PHI +204 · OKC -204 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Thunder 115, 76ers 109.
- 80% of simulations land between 76ers by 11 and Thunder by 23.
Side by side
| PHI | OKC | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 4-1 |
| -0.9 20 | Net rating | +10.0 1 |
| 111.2 19 | Offensive rating | 115.4 4 |
| 112.1 16 | Defensive rating | 105.5 1 |
| 52.7% 27 | Effective FG% | 55.6% 6 |
| 54.0% 11 | Opponent eFG% | 51.8% 3 |
| 13.1 5 | Turnovers per 100 | 12.5 1 |
| 25.1% 18 | Offensive rebound % | 23.4% 27 |
| 34.7% 23 | 3-point % | 36.2% 10 |
| 102.7 13 | Pace | 102.2 18 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-23 | 2025-26 | OKC 123 @ PHI 103 | OKC |
| 2025-12-28 | 2025-26 | PHI 104 @ OKC 129 | OKC |
| 2025-03-19 | 2024-25 | PHI 100 @ OKC 133 | OKC |
| 2025-01-14 | 2024-25 | OKC 118 @ PHI 102 | OKC |
| 2024-04-02 | 2023-24 | OKC 105 @ PHI 109 | PHI |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works