PHI
PHX
Philadelphia 76ers @ Phoenix Suns
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
PHIPhiladelphia 76ers
52% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 52% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why 76ers can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, 76ers +3.4, Suns -14.3.
- Simulation: the 76ers win 5,170 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.6 points to the 76ers in our ratings.
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): 76ers 5th (13.1), Suns 19th (14.5).
- Getting to the line (free throws per shot): 76ers 7th (0.22), Suns 28th (0.18).
Disadvantages Why 76ers may not
- Upset odds: the Suns win 4,830 of 10,000 simulations (48%). A 52% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Home court: the Suns play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the 76ers lose by 16 or more.
- Body clock: the 76ers cross 2 time zones.
- Three-point shooting: Suns 13th (35.9%), 76ers 23rd (34.7%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | PHI -0.6 |
| Total points | n/a | 226.4 |
| Win chance | PHI n/a · PHX n/a | PHI 52% · PHX 48% |
| Fair moneyline | PHI -107 · PHX +107 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Suns 113, 76ers 114.
- 80% of simulations land between 76ers by 17 and Suns by 16.
Side by side
| PHI | PHX | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 1-2 |
| -0.9 20 | Net rating | +0.2 16 |
| 111.2 19 | Offensive rating | 111.8 17 |
| 112.1 16 | Defensive rating | 111.6 13 |
| 52.7% 27 | Effective FG% | 53.7% 19 |
| 54.0% 11 | Opponent eFG% | 54.3% 16 |
| 13.1 5 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.5 19 |
| 25.1% 18 | Offensive rebound % | 28.7% 7 |
| 34.7% 23 | 3-point % | 35.9% 13 |
| 102.7 13 | Pace | 100.3 26 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-07 | 2025-26 | PHI 109 @ PHX 103 | PHI |
| 2026-01-20 | 2025-26 | PHX 116 @ PHI 110 | PHX |
| 2025-01-06 | 2024-25 | PHX 109 @ PHI 99 | PHX |
| 2024-11-04 | 2024-25 | PHI 116 @ PHX 118 | PHX |
| 2024-03-20 | 2023-24 | PHI 102 @ PHX 115 | PHX |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works