PHI
POR
Philadelphia 76ers @ Portland Trail Blazers
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
PORPortland Trail Blazers
58% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 58% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Trail Blazers can win
- Simulation: the Trail Blazers win 5,770 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Home court: the Trail Blazers play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Offensive rebounding (share of misses): Trail Blazers 2nd (30.9%), 76ers 18th (25.1%).
- Body clock: the 76ers cross 3 time zones.
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 0.6 points to the Trail Blazers in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why Trail Blazers may not
- Upset odds: the 76ers win 4,230 of 10,000 simulations (42%). A 58% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): 76ers 5th (13.1), Trail Blazers 30th (16.3).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Trail Blazers lose by 14 or more.
- Weak spot: the Trail Blazers rank 30th of 30 in ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions) (16.3).
- Weak spot: the Trail Blazers rank 28th of 30 in three-point shooting (34.1%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | POR -2.5 |
| Total points | n/a | 229.1 |
| Win chance | PHI n/a · POR n/a | PHI 42% · POR 58% |
| Fair moneyline | PHI +136 · POR -136 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Trail Blazers 116, 76ers 113.
- 80% of simulations land between 76ers by 14 and Trail Blazers by 19.
Side by side
| PHI | POR | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 3-1 |
| -0.9 20 | Net rating | -0.5 18 |
| 111.2 19 | Offensive rating | 110.9 21 |
| 112.1 16 | Defensive rating | 111.4 12 |
| 52.7% 27 | Effective FG% | 53.2% 24 |
| 54.0% 11 | Opponent eFG% | 54.1% 12 |
| 13.1 5 | Turnovers per 100 | 16.3 30 |
| 25.1% 18 | Offensive rebound % | 30.9% 2 |
| 34.7% 23 | 3-point % | 34.1% 28 |
| 102.7 13 | Pace | 103.7 11 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-15 | 2025-26 | POR 103 @ PHI 109 | PHI |
| 2026-02-09 | 2025-26 | PHI 118 @ POR 135 | POR |
| 2025-03-03 | 2024-25 | POR 119 @ PHI 102 | POR |
| 2024-12-30 | 2024-25 | PHI 125 @ POR 103 | PHI |
| 2024-01-29 | 2023-24 | PHI 104 @ POR 130 | POR |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works