PHI
SAC
Philadelphia 76ers @ Sacramento Kings
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
PHIPhiladelphia 76ers
69% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 69% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why 76ers can win
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 5.8 points to the 76ers in our ratings.
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, 76ers +3.4, Kings -16.6.
- Simulation: the 76ers win 6,930 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 2.5 points to the 76ers in our ratings.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): 76ers 20th (-0.9), Kings 29th (-10.1).
Disadvantages Why 76ers may not
- Home court: the Kings play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Upset odds: the Kings win 3,070 of 10,000 simulations (31%). A 69% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the 76ers lose by 10 or more.
- Body clock: the 76ers cross 3 time zones.
- Weak spot: the 76ers rank 27th of 30 in effective shooting (eFG%) (52.7%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | PHI -6.7 |
| Total points | n/a | 231 |
| Win chance | PHI n/a · SAC n/a | PHI 69% · SAC 31% |
| Fair moneyline | PHI -226 · SAC +226 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Kings 112, 76ers 119.
- 80% of simulations land between 76ers by 23 and Kings by 10.
Side by side
| PHI | SAC | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 0-5 |
| -0.9 20 | Net rating | -10.1 29 |
| 111.2 19 | Offensive rating | 108.3 28 |
| 112.1 16 | Defensive rating | 118.5 28 |
| 52.7% 27 | Effective FG% | 52.4% 29 |
| 54.0% 11 | Opponent eFG% | 57.3% 29 |
| 13.1 5 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.1 14 |
| 25.1% 18 | Offensive rebound % | 25.8% 14 |
| 34.7% 23 | 3-point % | 33.8% 30 |
| 102.7 13 | Pace | 102.4 16 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-19 | 2025-26 | PHI 139 @ SAC 118 | PHI |
| 2026-01-29 | 2025-26 | SAC 111 @ PHI 113 | PHI |
| 2025-01-29 | 2024-25 | SAC 104 @ PHI 117 | PHI |
| 2025-01-01 | 2024-25 | PHI 107 @ SAC 113 | SAC |
| 2024-03-25 | 2023-24 | PHI 96 @ SAC 108 | SAC |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works