PHI
SAS
Philadelphia 76ers @ San Antonio Spurs
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
SASSan Antonio Spurs
72% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 72% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why Spurs can win
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Spurs 2nd (+7.7), 76ers 20th (-0.9).
- Simulation: the Spurs win 7,190 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 3.4 points to the Spurs in our ratings.
- Point differential per game: Spurs 2nd (+7.9), 76ers 20th (-1.0).
- Home court: the Spurs play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
Disadvantages Why Spurs may not
- Upset odds: the 76ers win 2,810 of 10,000 simulations (28%). A 72% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: 76ers 9th (14.8), Spurs 25th (13.0).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Spurs lose by 10 or more.
- Weak spot: the Spurs rank 25th of 30 in turnovers forced per 100 possessions (13.0).
- Shooting variance: one hot or cold night from three can swing an NBA game by 15 points.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | SAS -7.2 |
| Total points | n/a | 226.8 |
| Win chance | PHI n/a · SAS n/a | PHI 28% · SAS 72% |
| Fair moneyline | PHI +256 · SAS -256 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Spurs 117, 76ers 110.
- 80% of simulations land between 76ers by 10 and Spurs by 24.
Side by side
| PHI | SAS | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 3-2 |
| -0.9 20 | Net rating | +7.7 2 |
| 111.2 19 | Offensive rating | 115.2 5 |
| 112.1 16 | Defensive rating | 107.5 3 |
| 52.7% 27 | Effective FG% | 55.1% 8 |
| 54.0% 11 | Opponent eFG% | 51.4% 2 |
| 13.1 5 | Turnovers per 100 | 13.3 6 |
| 25.1% 18 | Offensive rebound % | 26.4% 10 |
| 34.7% 23 | 3-point % | 35.8% 14 |
| 102.7 13 | Pace | 102.5 15 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-06 | 2025-26 | PHI 102 @ SAS 115 | SAS |
| 2026-03-03 | 2025-26 | SAS 131 @ PHI 91 | SAS |
| 2025-03-21 | 2024-25 | PHI 120 @ SAS 128 | SAS |
| 2024-12-23 | 2024-25 | SAS 106 @ PHI 111 | PHI |
| 2024-04-07 | 2023-24 | PHI 133 @ SAS 126 | PHI |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works