PHI
TOR
Philadelphia 76ers @ Toronto Raptors
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
TORToronto Raptors
64% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 64% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Raptors can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Raptors +15.0, 76ers +3.4.
- Simulation: the Raptors win 6,390 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Raptors 9th (+3.0), 76ers 20th (-0.9).
- Home court: the Raptors play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.4 points to the Raptors in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why Raptors may not
- Upset odds: the 76ers win 3,610 of 10,000 simulations (36%). A 64% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Raptors lose by 12 or more.
- Getting to the line (free throws per shot): 76ers 7th (0.22), Raptors 17th (0.21).
- Weak spot: the Raptors rank 21st of 30 in three-point shooting (35.2%).
- Weak spot: the Raptors rank 20th of 30 in defensive rebounding (share of misses) (73.6%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | TOR -4.5 |
| Total points | n/a | 225.5 |
| Win chance | PHI n/a · TOR n/a | PHI 36% · TOR 64% |
| Fair moneyline | PHI +177 · TOR -177 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Raptors 115, 76ers 111.
- 80% of simulations land between 76ers by 12 and Raptors by 21.
Side by side
| PHI | TOR | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 3-1 |
| -0.9 20 | Net rating | +3.0 9 |
| 111.2 19 | Offensive rating | 112.4 15 |
| 112.1 16 | Defensive rating | 109.4 7 |
| 52.7% 27 | Effective FG% | 54.3% 15 |
| 54.0% 11 | Opponent eFG% | 53.8% 8 |
| 13.1 5 | Turnovers per 100 | 13.6 8 |
| 25.1% 18 | Offensive rebound % | 25.7% 15 |
| 34.7% 23 | 3-point % | 35.2% 21 |
| 102.7 13 | Pace | 101.8 21 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-12 | 2025-26 | PHI 115 @ TOR 102 | PHI |
| 2026-01-11 | 2025-26 | PHI 115 @ TOR 116 | TOR |
| 2025-11-19 | 2025-26 | TOR 121 @ PHI 112 | TOR |
| 2025-11-08 | 2025-26 | TOR 120 @ PHI 130 | PHI |
| 2025-03-30 | 2024-25 | TOR 127 @ PHI 109 | TOR |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works