PHI
UTA
Philadelphia 76ers @ Utah Jazz
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
PHIPhiladelphia 76ers
62% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 62% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why 76ers can win
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 3.8 points to the 76ers in our ratings.
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, 76ers +3.4, Jazz -7.8.
- Simulation: the 76ers win 6,150 of 10,000 simulated games.
- The 76ers' offense (111.2 points per 100 possessions, 19th in the NBA) meets a Jazz defense that ranks 29th.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): 76ers 20th (-0.9), Jazz 27th (-7.9).
Disadvantages Why 76ers may not
- Upset odds: the Jazz win 3,850 of 10,000 simulations (38%). A 62% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Home court: the Jazz play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the 76ers lose by 13 or more.
- Body clock: the 76ers cross 2 time zones.
- Weak spot: the 76ers rank 27th of 30 in effective shooting (eFG%) (52.7%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | PHI -3.5 |
| Total points | n/a | 232.4 |
| Win chance | PHI n/a · UTA n/a | PHI 62% · UTA 38% |
| Fair moneyline | PHI -160 · UTA +160 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Jazz 114, 76ers 118.
- 80% of simulations land between 76ers by 21 and Jazz by 13.
Side by side
| PHI | UTA | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 1-4 |
| -0.9 20 | Net rating | -7.9 27 |
| 111.2 19 | Offensive rating | 111.1 20 |
| 112.1 16 | Defensive rating | 119.0 29 |
| 52.7% 27 | Effective FG% | 53.6% 20 |
| 54.0% 11 | Opponent eFG% | 57.6% 30 |
| 13.1 5 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.8 21 |
| 25.1% 18 | Offensive rebound % | 26.3% 12 |
| 34.7% 23 | 3-point % | 34.4% 24 |
| 102.7 13 | Pace | 105.6 2 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-21 | 2025-26 | PHI 126 @ UTA 116 | PHI |
| 2026-03-04 | 2025-26 | UTA 102 @ PHI 106 | PHI |
| 2025-03-09 | 2024-25 | UTA 122 @ PHI 126 | PHI |
| 2024-12-28 | 2024-25 | PHI 114 @ UTA 111 | PHI |
| 2024-02-01 | 2023-24 | PHI 127 @ UTA 124 | PHI |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works