PHI
WAS
Philadelphia 76ers @ Washington Wizards
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
PHIPhiladelphia 76ers
61% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 61% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why 76ers can win
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 3.7 points to the 76ers in our ratings.
- Simulation: the 76ers win 6,100 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): 76ers 20th (-0.9), Wizards 30th (-10.9).
- The 76ers' offense (111.2 points per 100 possessions, 19th in the NBA) meets a Wizards defense that ranks 30th.
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): 76ers 5th (13.1), Wizards 23rd (15.0).
Disadvantages Why 76ers may not
- Upset odds: the Wizards win 3,900 of 10,000 simulations (39%). A 61% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Home court: the Wizards play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the 76ers lose by 13 or more.
- Weak spot: the 76ers rank 27th of 30 in effective shooting (eFG%) (52.7%).
- Weak spot: the 76ers rank 26th of 30 in defensive rebounding (share of misses) (72.3%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | PHI -3.4 |
| Total points | n/a | 230.5 |
| Win chance | PHI n/a · WAS n/a | PHI 61% · WAS 39% |
| Fair moneyline | PHI -156 · WAS +156 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Wizards 114, 76ers 117.
- 80% of simulations land between 76ers by 20 and Wizards by 13.
Side by side
| PHI | WAS | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 2-3 |
| -0.9 20 | Net rating | -10.9 30 |
| 111.2 19 | Offensive rating | 108.2 29 |
| 112.1 16 | Defensive rating | 119.2 30 |
| 52.7% 27 | Effective FG% | 53.5% 21 |
| 54.0% 11 | Opponent eFG% | 55.9% 27 |
| 13.1 5 | Turnovers per 100 | 15.0 23 |
| 25.1% 18 | Offensive rebound % | 23.9% 22 |
| 34.7% 23 | 3-point % | 35.5% 18 |
| 102.7 13 | Pace | 104.3 5 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-01 | 2025-26 | PHI 153 @ WAS 131 | PHI |
| 2026-01-07 | 2025-26 | WAS 110 @ PHI 131 | PHI |
| 2025-12-02 | 2025-26 | WAS 102 @ PHI 121 | PHI |
| 2025-10-28 | 2025-26 | PHI 139 @ WAS 134 | PHI |
| 2025-04-09 | 2024-25 | PHI 122 @ WAS 103 | PHI |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works